In the second half of 2013/14 MY China to keep the rates of grain imports
According to expectations of the market participants, in the second half of the season-2013/14 China will remain one of the world leaders in grain and oilseed imports, keeping the current rates of purchases of the marked commodities.
As a reminder, in September-November period of 2013 the country imported nearly 14.92 mln tonnes of soybeans, against 13.16 mln tonnes in the same period in the previous year. Moreover, the country also imported 2.03 mln tonnes of wheat (0.87 mln tonnes) and 41 thsd tonnes of maize (831 thsd tonnes). Generally, in 2013/14 MY the shipments of soybeans to China may reach 69 mln tonnes (59.87 mln tonnes), wheat - 8.5 mln tonnes (2.96 mln tonnes), maize - 7 mln tonnes (2.7 mln tonnes).
At the same time, there are expected quite significant changes in the geography of agricultural products supplies to China.
For example, China will likely turn its attention to the imports of soybeans of South American origin in the nearest future.
As for the imports of wheat, the opinions vary in the issue. Several market operators already speculated the trend towards the stability of purchasing of the grain from the United States, while other experts inclined to switch to the imports from Australia, due to the lower prices and the close geographical location.
There are also expected some changes in the geography of maize supplies to China. If previously the US share of the grain exports to the country reached 80-90%, then in the beginning of the current season the country refused to accept 0.6 mln tonnes of the commodity due to indication of the supply of a forbidden crop variety. As a result, there is expected that China will make up for shortage at the expense of the supplies of the commodity of South American and Ukrainian origin. At the same time, the analysts forecast that the share of imports of Ukrainian maize to China in the nearest future may increase to 5-6 mln tonnes, as opposed to 2 mln tonnes expected in the current MY.
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