Winter crops planting campaign in Ukraine - traditionally unfavorable weather

Source

APK-Inform

11605

 

Winter planting campaign in Ukraine was carried out under rather unfavorable weather that is quite traditional for farmers. Prolonged rains were the main obstacle for field works this year. The most abundant rains occurred in northern and central regions that usually have higher than the average yield of winter crops. This fact will influence on production volumes.

 

Winter grains - key production trends

A share of winter wheat reaches nearly 40% in total grain output in Ukraine over the last 3 years. Winter wheat planted areas make up 42% in total grain areas. The share of winter wheat reaches 97% in total wheat production and area.

Dynamics of winter wheat production shows growing yield. Its annual increase was nearly 11% over the last 5 seasons, and it reached record 4.22 t/ha in 2016.

 

 

The planted areas under winter wheat varied between 6.1 mln ha for 2014 crop and 6.8 mln ha for 2015 crop. Area size mainly depended on weather during planting campaign. However, even with area fluctuation winter wheat crop annually grows by nearly 15%.

Drought in the autumn 2015 did not let farmers to plant all planned fields with winter wheat and area under 2016 crop declined to 6.2 mln ha. According APK-Inform estimations, winter wheat crop declined by 2% to 25.4 mln tonnes in 2016 despite record yield.

Analysis of winter killing shows that nearly 4% of area is lost annually (despite abnormal 2012). This index is going down and reached 2% in 2015.

The planting campaign for 2017 crop was not fulfilled as planned due to abundant rains. According to the Ministry of Agrarian Policy and Food of Ukraine, winter wheat planted area totaled 6.1 mln ha in 2016, down 1% on year. The most unfavorable weather was observed in central and northern regions that usually have higher grain yield. Thus, even under successful wintering the grain yield could decline and reach 4.05 t/ha in 2017 while production will total 23.6 mln tonnes.

41% of winter wheat area is located in 5 southern oblasts – Zaporozhye, Odessa, Dnepropetrovsk, Kherson and Mykolaiv. Traditionally these oblasts could not obtain high yield, however, during the planting campaign the weather here was the most favorable.

A share of winter barley was nearly 7% in total grains area, and nearly 5% in total grains production over the last 3 seasons.

The planted areas under barley are declining by nearly 6% annually. However, area decrease is offset by higher yield that is growing by nearly 22% every year during the last 5 seasons. According to APK-Inform estimates, winter barley yield reached record 3.62 t/ha that led to production at 3.6 mln tonnes in 2016.

 

 

Excluding abnormal winter killing in 2012, the average harvested area of winter barley traditionally is nearly 6% lower than the planted areas; this index has been declining and reached 4% this season.

52% of total winter barley area is located only in 2 oblasts – Odessa and Mykolaiv that significantly influences on yield results.

According to the Ministry of Agrarian Policy and Food of Ukraine, planted area under winter barley for 2017 crop totaled 882 thsd ha, down 15% on year. Taking to account expected decline of yield to 3.5 t/ha, winter barley production in Ukraine in 2017/18 MY can decrease by 20% to 2.9 mln tonnes. Unlike wheat, decline of winter barley area can be offset by spring varieties. The share of winter barley is nearly 36% in total barley area and nearly 38% in total barley output.

According to polling of farmers carried out by APK-Inform, agrarians estimate winter crops condition as rather good. Nearly 34% of wheat and 39% of barley are in good and excellent conditions.

However, nearly 9% of wheat and 10% of barley are in unfavorable condition and can die through winter.

 

Winter rapeseed

After several years of reduction planted area under winter rapeseed for 2017 crop increase by 37.2% to 899.2 thsd ha, according to the State statistics service. Last year the area was the lowest in 10 years (655 thsd ha).

  

The planting campaign finished just in early December that negatively affected sprouting and crop condition. According to the State statistics service, there were no sprouts over 66.1 thsd ha (7.4%) as of December 22. Out of 833.1 thsd ha (92.6%) that emerged, 42.5% (353.8 thsd ha) is in good condition, 39.6% (330.2 thsd ha) in satisfactory, 17.7% (147.7 thsd tonnes) in poor, 0.2% (1.4 thsd ha) died.

Further development of plantings especially those in poor condition will depend on weather during wintering.

However, winter rapeseed sprouting and conditions are better than year ago when crop emerged over 87% by the same date with 68.2% in good and satisfactory conditions, 31.1% in poor and 0.7% died.

According to polling of farmers, 89% of winter rapeseed was planted in optimal period and conditions of the oilseed as of December were much better that in previous years. Agrarians informed that nearly 45.4% of the oilseed is in good conditions, more than 50% in satisfactory and 3.5% in unsatisfactory.

Some farmers mainly in northwestern regions delayed planting campaign by 14-30 days due to lack of soil moisture in August-September. The potential of late planted rapeseed is low and only 8% of it is in good conditions, 81% in satisfactory and 11% in unsatisfactory.

 

Forecasts

Taking to account winter killing, APK-Inform forecasts the harvested areas under winter wheat at 5.8 mln ha, and its production at nearly 23.6 mln tonnes. The harvested areas under winter barley can reach 829 thsd ha, and its production – 2.9 mln tonnes.

The harvested areas under winter rapeseed can total 750 thsd ha. The oilseed yield can be as high as lasts seasons (nearly 2.65 t/ha in 2015 and 2016). The crop production is forecasted at 2 mln tonnes, up 68% on year.

 

Andrei Kupchenko, Yulia Ivanitskaya, APK-Inform Agency

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