Ukraine: low rates of grain exports may lead to accumulation of the record carry-over stocks - APK-Inform
Since beginning of the current season (July 1), and as of October 18, Ukraine already exported 7.7 mln tonnes of grains and pulses, and 0.4 mln tonnes of grain by-products, up 7% compared with the same period in the previous season. However, the steady rates of foreign grain supplies are not enough to realize the forecasted grain export potential at 30.4 mln tonnes, reported Rodion Rybchinskiy, Head of Business Projects Division of APK-Inform Agency, during his report at the IV Ukrainian Grain Congress on October 24.
In terms of such potential, in the reporting period the export volume should have reached 8.9 mln tonnes, and taking into account the further reduction of the export rates in the winter, the index should be even greater. As for the exports of grain by-products, there was observed some decline of foreign supply rates by 25%, despite the increase of flour and groats production volumes, compared with last season, said the expert.
He also said that due to the reporting backlog of grain exports from the appropriate level, Ukraine may again form the record carry-over stocks - 14.7 mln tonnes.
According to him, the three major grains (wheat, barley and maize) may reach the real exports at 23.5 mln tonnes in terms of the export potential of 30 mln tonnes, due to the carrying capacity of the infrastructure. As a result, the possible carry-over stocks of wheat may reach 5.5 mln tonnes, barley - 1.2 mln tonnes, maize - 6.2 mln tonnes, which will significantly influence the market in the coming season, concluded R.Rybchinskiy.
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