Political tensions in the Black Sea region continue affecting the world wheat prices
According to Ukrainian grain market operators, despite the rise of prices for milling wheat on the world market, its export price in Ukraine remained almost unchanged during recent weeks - 283-285 USD/FOB. Representatives of export-oriented companies considered inappropriate to raise offer prices for the grain due to absence of physical demand from importers.
According to Natalia Merkusheva, Economist of the FAO, to date Ukraine already supplied most of the forecasted grain export volumes in 2013/14 MY, and there is no reason to assume appearance of any serious obstacles for development of the international trade, troubling realization of the reporting forecasts.
She noted that the growth of US wheat futures in late April 2014 was partly caused by political tensions in the Black Sea region. Nevertheless, adverse weather conditions for winter wheat areas in the USA played its important role. The expert believes that the reporting factors will affect the global grain market in several following weeks. There is expected an increasing of price volatility in response to the uncertainty associated with both factors, said N.Merkusheva.
In his turn, Matt Ammermann, Commodity risk management consultant on Eastern Europe/Black Sea at INTL FCStone, said that the wheat sector came under the influence of the situation in Ukraine, whereas the maize sector mainly depends on the planting campaign in the USA and weather conditions in the region.
You can receive more detailed information about the harvest, stocks and the level of trading on the world grain market in 2013/14 MY, and forecasts for 2014/15 MY, from the presentation of Natalia Merkusheva, FAO economist, within the thirteenth international conference "Grain Forum - 2014: new markets, challenges and opportunities" (June 16-18, 2014, Odessa).
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