Ukraine: grain carry-over stocks at the end of 2013/14 MY may reach 11.5 mln tonnes - APK-Inform
In terms of realization of the export potential, at the end of 2013/14 MY the carry-over stocks of grains and pulses in Ukraine are estimated by analysts of APK-Inform Agency at the level of 11.5 mln tonnes, up 19% compared with the last season index (9.7 mln tonnes). According to the experts, the reporting carry-over stocks would have to provide pressure on the prices, but the current economic situation in the country, lower forecast of the new harvest volumes, and increasing of the production costs, will compensate the above-mentioned pressure, and can lead to keeping of the bullish trend.
According to the State Statistics Service of Ukraine, as of May 1, 2014, the stocks of grains at the enterprises dealing with crop processing and storage, were estimated at 9.1 mln tonnes (excluding grain stocks, located in the Crimea). The volumes grew by 12% compared with the grain stocks as of May 1, 2013 - 8.2 mln tonnes. In particular, the wheat stocks were estimated at 3.4 mln tonnes, up 14% compared with the index in 2013 (2.9 mln tonnes).
The reporting volumes of grain stocks allow to completely realize the export potential of wheat in the current season, which is estimated at 9 mln tonnes by analysts of APK-Inform. According to the official statistics data, since the beginning of the season (July 1, 2013 - May 12, 2014) Ukraine already exported over 8.2 mln tonnes of wheat. Thus, in the remaining seven weeks of the season the country will export nearly 800 thsd tonnes of the grain, which will form the stocks at the level of 2.6 mln tonnes excluding the new crop grain in the specified category of enterprises as of July 1, 2014. It may be noted that as of June 1, 2013 (when there was no active coming of new crops grains to the enterprises), the wheat stocks totaled 2.4 mln tonnes (excluding the grain volumes in the Crimea).
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