In 2014 the inflation in Ukraine will exceed the level of 20%, declared Oleg Ustenko, Executive Director of the Bleyzer Foundation.
According to the expert, the fall of the Ukrainian GDP would exceed 8%, the budget deficit will total over 10% of GDP.
Reduction in economic indices was caused by several reasons: outflow of foreign direct investments, decreasing of imports and exports, decreasing of the industrial production rates. At the same time, in the eastern region the decline of economic indicators in at least 2 times will exceed the general reduction in the whole country.
According O.Ustenko as for the UAH/USD and UAH/EUR exchange rates, the high volatility observed on the market in the recent days, is primarily caused by transition of the National Bank of Ukraine to the flexible exchange rate formation. As a result, the exchange rate will be set based of the supply and demand balances. He noted that such large-scale exchange rate fluctuations are quite natural during transition to the flexible rate formation.
The exchange rate volatility will continue for the following few weeks. But once the market finds its balanced condition, as soon as the demand is at the point of restraint with the supply, the rate fluctuations will stop, said the expert.
You can receive more detailed analysis of the macroeconomic situation in Ukraine, and its influence on further development of the business from O.Ustenko during his report within the Second round of the V Ukrainian Grain Congress (November 24-26, Kiev).
