Russia has to significantly increase grain export volumes in the second half of 2016/17 MY - Rusagrotrans

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APK-Inform

1760

As of December 1, 2016, the carry-over stocks of grains in Russia reached 45 mln tonnes, which became the maximum figure for the reporting month since December 2009, when the stocks totaled 49.4 mln tonnes, declared the Deputy Director of strategic marketing and corporate communications department at Rusagrotrans CJSC, Igor Pavensky on January 13.

According to him, to date Russia has a situation with relatively moderate grain export rates, record market stocks, relatively high domestic prices, and the absence of any prospects for the growth of export prices on the global market in the coming months, due to the record production and stocks, as well as coming of Argentina and Australia on the market with their good harvests.

The expert reminded the export potential of Russian grains in the season-2016/17 totals not less than 40 mln tonnes. Also, the figures can increase to 43 mln tonnes, in terms of reducing of the carry-over stocks in the new season to the standard level.

Since March, the market usually starts focusing on the new crops prices, and the demand from countries-importers starts somewhat declining. Therefore, in January-June of 2017 Russia will have to export another 20 mln tonnes of grains for realization of the export potential, which will be extremely difficult. Taking into account already exported grain volumes, and extrapolating the similar situation of many previous years for the current season, Russia has all chances to fail to exceed the figures of the season-2015/16, when grain exports totaled 34 mln tonnes of grains (excluding flour and pulses), said I.Pavensky.

According to him, in February-May period of 2017 the export rates of Russian grains will significantly exceed the exports in the same period of 2016.

Otherwise, Russia will receive unprecedentedly high level of grain ending stocks at over 20 mln tonnes, up 2 times compared with 2015/16 MY. In terms of record planted areas under winter grains for the harvest-2017, and extremely favorable condition of the crops, the prospect of enormous grain ending stocks will have a very negative impact on domestic prices and investment attractiveness of the grain industry, concluded the expert.

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