Analysts of CJSC Rusagrotrans decreased their forecast of the export volumes of Russian grains in February 2017 to 1.8-2 mln tonnes, as opposed to the previous forecast of 2.3-2.4 mln tonnes. Also, the reporting export volume will become a significant reduction compared with the same month last year, declared the Deputy Director of strategic marketing and corporate communications department at Rusagrotrans CJSC, Igor Pavensky on February 20.
According to the expert, adverse weather conditions became was the main reason for decreasing of the forecast, which slowed down grain shipments from the deep-sea ports in the first half of the month. In terms of traditionally low shipments from small ports, the factor will have a significant impact on the general export volumes.
At the same time, to date the weather conditions improved, and grain shipment rates somewhat increased. Therefore, until the end of February the deep-sea ports can ship nearly 1.3-1.4 mln tonnes of grains, said I.Pavensky.
In particular, in the current month Russian wheat exports will reach nearly 1.4-1.5 mln tonnes, barley - 80-100 thsd tonnes, and corn - 350-400 thsd tonnes.
Also, Rusagrotrans decreased preliminary estimations of March export volumes from 2.9-3 mln tonnes of grains to 2.5-2.6 mln tonnes, due to low contracting activity, strengthening of RUR exchange rates, and stability of domestic prices in the southern region of Russia.
The absence of large-scale export volumes in February and March, and reduction of demand from countries-importers in the coming months, and the forthcoming new harvest volumes, will provide the general export volumes from Russia in 2016/17 MY at nearly 35 mln tonnes of grains, against the previously expected volumes of 36.1 mln tonnes, including 27 mln tonnes of wheat (the previous forecast - 28 mln tonnes), the expert said.
