The existing lag in the export rates of Russian grains compared with last season figures, will possibly cause some reduction of prices on the domestic market and breakage of the planting campaign rates, declared the President of the Russian Grain Union, Arkady Zlochevsky on February 22.
According to him, since the beginning of the current MY Russia already exported 23.767 mln tonnes of grains, against 25.875 mln tonnes in the corresponding period of last season. It is clear that Russia will fail to reach the planned volume of exports at 41-42.5 mln tonnes in the current agricultural year.
A.Zlochevsky explained that there are several reasons for the reporting lag in exports, but during 2 recent months a fundamental strengthening of the ruble became the major limiting factor. As a result, in the recent week Russia exported 366 thsd tonnes of grains only, which became a very low volume of weekly exports. In addition, adverse weather conditions in the ports made its negative impact at the export dynamics.
According to the forecast, the export volumes will start growing, if the USD exchange rates reach nearly 60 rubles, which will support further export shipments.
According to A.Zlochevsky, the reporting slowdown in grain exports can cause some concentration of large-scale surpluses on the market which will put pressure on the prices, because the Russian domestic market is very problematic in terms of distribution of grain resources.
High-quality grains are usually stocked in the Ural District and Siberia. The European part and the south do not have sufficient grain volumes. Therefore, there are high costs for grain transportation, which impacts at the prices. There are some concerns that in the period of beginning of the planting campaign, traders will sell a significant volumes of grains, which will collapse the prices, said the expert. As a result, such fall of prices will completely break the planting campaign terms.
At the same time, A.Zlochevsky expects that the Ministry of Agriculture will make its best and prevent the collapse of grain prices.
