By the beginning of 2015/16 MY (July 1), the carry-over stocks of grains in Russia may reach 15.5 mln tonnes, including nearly 8 mln tonnes of wheat, announced Igor Pavensky, Deputy Director of the strategic management department of Rusagrotrans CJSC, on April 8.
The expert said that by July 1, grain stocks in the intervention fund may reach 2.1 mln tonnes. In addition, the commercial market will have nearly 13 mln tonnes of grains, including nearly 7 mln tonnes of wheat. It will become the absolute record, exceeding the previous record achieved in the beginning of the season-2011/12, when, the grain reserves totaled 10.6 mln tonnes after imposition of the Russian grain export ban in the summer-2010, said the expert.
Also, the expected grain harvest in the current year will make its significant pressure on the market. I.Pavensky announced the forecast of grain production within 93-98 mln tonnes, as opposed to 91-96 mln tonnes of the previous forecast.
In terms of the optimistic scenario, it is possible that the grain harvest volumes may reach 100 mln tonnes and even more, and the export potential - 27-30 mln tonnes, said the analyst.
Thus, in terms of the record grain stocks, lack of export demand, and the established expectations of a good harvest, prolongation of the export duties on wheat after July 1, 2015, may lead to a collapse of grain prices, which will worsen coming rates of the new harvest grains on the market. And it is obvious that the intervention fund is not able to "take" all surplus grain volumes from the market, especially in the south of the country, concluded I.Pavensky.
