APK-Inform increased the forecast of grain production in Ukraine in 2013/14 MY




Analysts of APK-Inform Agency increased the estimations of the general grain harvest in Ukraine in 2013 to the level of 57.1 mln tonnes, up 5.5% compared with the previous month estimations (54.1 mln tonnes), and the index exceeds the record high grain production volumes, observed in 2011/12 MY (56.7 mln tonnes).

APK-Inform analysts increased the estimation mainly due to the growth of maize production forecast, which planted areas faced quite favorable agro-climatic conditions in the summer, assisting to improvement of the grain yield. For example, the experts increased the yield index from 5.29 t/ha, expected in June 2013, to 5.95 t/ha. As a result, the grain production forecast was increased from 23.9 mln tonnes, expected in June, to 26.2 mln tonnes. At the same time, the forecasted index significantly (up 14.6%) exceeds the record harvest of maize in Ukraine, made in 2011 (22.8 mln tonnes). The estimation of maize planted and harvested areas remained unchanged.

As for the forecast of other grain crops, the indices were slightly increased compared with the June estimations: wheat production is forecasted at 21.4 mln tonnes (as opposed to 20.5 mln tonnes in June) with the average yield of 3.25 t/ha, barley - 7.3 mln tonnes (7.15 mln tonnes) with the yield of 2.31 t/ha.

You can become acquainted with more detailed information on the supply and demand balances of grains in Ukraine from the analysis article “Ukraine - supply and demand balances of grains and pulses in 2012/13 MY. Forecast for 2013/14 MY (July)” in the next issue of AGRIMARKET WEEKLY #33, dd. August 26, 2013.