According to the USDA forecasts, in 2016/17 MY Ukraine will take the fourth position in the rating of global exporters of barley, with the supplies at 4 mln tonnes. At the same time, in the beginning of the season APK-Inform analysts estimated the index at 3.5 mln tonnes. However, during the season the grain shipment volumes are usually subject to adjustments. For example, in the beginning of 2015/16 MY the export volumes were expected at the level of 2.9 mln tonnes, but in September 2015 the forecast raised to 4 mln tonnes.
We should note that despite slight reduction of the planted areas under barley in Ukraine, and absence of any significant upward trend in the grain production, Ukraine still continues actively supplying the grain on the global market. In particular, in the new season Ukraine is expected to strengthen its positions on the Asian market.
At the same time, there are two key factors slowing down development of the export market of Ukrainian barley – qualitative indices of the grain, and the level of global prices.
You can receive more detailed information about the main trends and developments of the Ukrainian export market of feed barley from the article "Beginning of 2016/17 MY for the Ukrainian barley market - major trends & forecasts" at the magazine Agrimarket Weekly #28 dd. July 18, 2016.