How does the reduction of rye production in Ukraine affect its distribution rates




According to the recent January estimations of APK-Inform Agency, in 2019/20 MY the production volumes of rye in Ukraine totaled 334 thsd tonnes, a decrease of 15.2% compared with last season (394 thsd tonnes). The downward trend in rye production developed in terms of reduction of the planted areas under the grain. So, in 2017/18 MY the planted areas totaled 171 thsd ha, then in the season-2018/19 the figures decreased by 13%, and totaled 148 thsd ha, and in 2019/20 MY the figures decreased by another 21%, and totaled 117 thsd ha. At the same time, for the fourth running season the average grain yield in Ukraine was relatively stable, and formed within the range of 2.65-2.97 t/ha.

The decline in rye production led to lowering of APK-Inform estimations of both domestic consumption and export volumes. So, if in 2017/18 MY APK-Inform analysts estimated the consumption of rye at 445 thsd tonnes, in the season-2018/19 the figures lowered to 350 thsd tonnes (down 21% compared with 2017/18 MY), then in the current season the figures reached 310 thsd tonnes (down 11% compared with 2018/19 MY).

As for the exports, for seven months of the current season Ukraine already shipped 3.2 thsd tonnes of the grain only on foreign markets, while in July-January of 2018/19 MY Ukraine exported 85.7 thsd tonnes. According to the forecasts of APK-Inform analysts, in 2019/20 MY rye exports will total 10 thsd tonnes, or 3% only of the grain production in Ukraine, whereas in the previous season the figures varied at the level of 89 thsd tonnes, or 23% of the production.



In terms of the current reduction of rye production in Ukraine, there is observed the growth of the grain imports. According to APK-Inform figures, in July-December of the current season Ukraine imported 2.6 thsd tonnes of rye, while in the same period last season the imports totaled 0.5 thsd tonnes only.

It is worth noting that agrarians planted winter rye for the harvest-2020, which covered 99% of the grain production, throughout the areas of 124 thsd ha, up 6% compared with the general planted areas under the grain in the previous year. Thus, if the average yield keeps at the level of 2.8 t/ha, then the preliminary forecast of the grain harvest next season totals nearly 350 thsd tonnes, which will break down the bearish trend in rye production.