Ukrainian soybeans withdrew into the shadows — APK-Inform




Taking into account the current rates of soybean exports and processing in Ukraine in 2019/20 MY, APK-Inform Agency started reviewing its previous estimations of the oilseed production in 2019. Thus, APK-Inform analysts increased the harvest figures to 4.35 mln tonnes (the second largest harvest in the contemporary history), up 650 thsd tonnes compared with the official estimations of the State Statistics Service of Ukraine. It indicate that the significant share of the oilseed harvest, namely nearly 15%, falls into the grey market.

The updated forecast of soybean exports from Ukraine in 2019/20 MY totals 2.55 mln tonnes, up 2.4% compared with last season, and the domestic consumption — 1.8 mln tonnes (down 17%).

Taking into account the current supply and demand balances of soybeans, and plans of agricultural producers to change the planted areas, the first forecast of APK-Inform Agency of soybean production in 2020 totals 3.9-4.2 mln tonnes, which will become lower by 4-9% compared with last year. The planted areas will either remain at the level of 2019, or decrease to 1.6-1.7 mln ha, as opposed to 1.7 mln ha in 2019. In terms of the current deficit of moisture content, the Agency did not forecast the growth of yield figures, the oilseed market analyst at APK-Inform, Julia Ivanitskaya.