The total supply of food wheat in Kazakhstan may amount to more than 9.5 mln tonnes in 2023/24 MY, according to the Grain Union of Kazakhstan.
According to official statistics, as of August 1, 2023, in the Republic of Kazakhstan, food wheat stocks amounted to 4.4 mln tonnes. According to a preliminary assessment of the structure of the new harvest, the share of milling wheat of 2-, 3- and 4-grade may be at least 50% (5.5 mln tonnes in weight after processing). Based on reports on harvested areas and current grain yields, the Grain Union suggests that about 2.5 mln tonnes of food wheat of the new harvest was collected before prolonged rains.
“Thus, taking into account carry-over stocks at the beginning of the new season and the assessment of the harvest, the total amount of food wheat can be at least 8.5 mln tonnes. In addition to this, imports of food wheat by domestic flour mills can amount to 20% of their annual needs (about 1 mln tonnes per year). In this case, the total supply of food wheat in 2023/24 MY could be more than 9.5 mln tonnes. While 1.7 mln tonnes of food wheat are needed to supply the domestic market,” the Grain Union said.
Hence, the experts of the Grain Union estimate the export potential of food wheat and flour in grain equivalent at 6.5-7.5 mln tonnes. This is the long-term average for Kazakhstan.
Thus, the main problem is not the quantity or quality of the harvest, but the upcoming insolvency of Kazakh grain producers, which may first have a negative impact on the upcoming planting campaign, and only then on the country’s food supply.
“The problem of this year is not the issue of providing the domestic market with food and feed wheat. It lies in the fact that this year many grain producers suffered from an invasion of locusts and saiga, as well as drought during the growing season. In addition to this, grain producers are hit by rains during the mass harvest period,” the Grain Union emphasized.