Experts improve prospects for Russian wheat exports




Finmarket reports that the Center for Price Indexes, a subsidiary of Gazprombank, has released its updated quarterly consensus forecast on exports from the Russian Federation for key types of agricultural products in the 2023/24 MY.

“In terms of key indicators, analysts’ opinions have become more optimistic since November 2023. Expectations for wheat exports in the current season have been significantly revised upward – from 50.4 mln tonnes to 52.9 mln tonnes,” the report says.

The estimate for wheat exports in 2024/25 MY has also been increased – to 48.1 mln tonnes versus 46.4 mln tonnes in November.

"The consensus on sunflower oil production and export is surprising. Despite an increase in sunflower harvest, analysts revised current marketing year (MY) projections from 7 million tons to 6.8 million tons for production and from 4.6 million tons to 4.3 million tons for exports. Differing opinions on exports, despite being midway through the season, suggest a lack of market clarity regarding strategies among oil and fat companies amid rising raw material supplies," the report says.

The consensus forecast for two of three oilseed types for the upcoming season is lower than previous estimates. Sunflower seed harvest projections stand at 15.5 mln tonnes (down from 15.6 mln tonnes per the November forecast), while rapeseed is estimated at 4.2 mln tonnes (previously 4.3 mln tonnes). Soybean production estimates remain unchanged at 5.9 mln tonnes.