Crop Forecast by APK-Inform

Source

APK-Inform

3760

After two self-provided seasons Ukraine can decrease the export volumes of some crops and can face necessity of their import in 2006/07 MY, due to lower harvest compared to the previous years.

In 2006 areas planted with winter crops sharply dropped due to dry weather. Historical minimum for sowing of wheat and rye was observed this MY. Only areas under barley were increased a bit as compared to the previous year. Frosts in the end of January caused damage of weak sows. Nevertheless, in addition to decreasing of areas under winter crops, we should be ready to their more significant damage than 2 last years.

Due to seeds cutting in 2006 we forecast increasing of spring sowings share. We are expecting total area spring crops about 9.1 mln ha, up 18 % a year ago.

As for foreign trade prospects of main grain crops in 2006/07 MY:

- Wheat export of 5.7 mln tones due to excessive supply in the current year. To date the total export wheat volumes is 5 mln tones. In new 2006/07 MY we expect not only export decreasing to 2.5 mln tons but also wheat importing. Our estimation for wheat import is 1 mln tons.

- Barley export decreasing due to gross yield drop. We forecast barley export in 2006/07 MY is 3.6 mln tons. To date total barley export reached 3.3 mln tons. In the next season export will increase to 4 mln tons due to producing growth expectations.

- Maize export is expected at 2.4 mln tons. For passed 6 months of maize season (October-March) total export hardly reached 2 mln tons. We forecast total supply decreasing which will lead to export drop to 1.8 mln tons.

Wheat (thsd/tonnes, thsd/ha) 2002/03 2003/04 2004/05 2005/06* 2006/07*
Opening stock 60 30 60 50 13
Gross 197 100 398 283 0
Import 0 0 0 0 1 000
Total Offer 257 131 459 333 1 013
Consumption 0 0 0 0 11 000
Export 4 180 6 875 8 867 7 167 2 500
Closing stock 21 13 14 13 -12 487
Total Distribution 4 201 6 888 8 881 7 180 1 013
 
Barley (thsd/tonnes, thsd/ha) 2002/03 2003/04 2004/05 2005/06* 2006/07*
Opening stock 130 250 360 340 2
Gross 117 85 1 426 986 0
Import 0 0 0 0 4
Total Offer 247 335 1 786 1 326 6
Consumption 0 0 0 0 6 000
Export 613 371 636 616 4 000
Closing stock 1 1 1 2 -9 994
Total Distribution 614 372 637 618 6
 
Maize (thsd/tonnes, thsd/ha) 2002/03 2003/04 2004/05 2005/06* 2006/07*
Opening stock 30 30 30 30 1
Gross 43 37 96 39 0
Import 0 0 0 0 13
Total Offer 73 67 127 69 14
Consumption 0 0 0 0 5 250
Export 209 311 294 275 1 800
Closing stock 1 1 0 1 -7 036
Total Distribution 210 312 294 276 14

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