After two self-provided seasons Ukraine can decrease the export volumes of some crops and can face necessity of their import in 2006/07 MY, due to lower harvest compared to the previous years.
In 2006 areas planted with winter crops sharply dropped due to dry weather. Historical minimum for sowing of wheat and rye was observed this MY. Only areas under barley were increased a bit as compared to the previous year. Frosts in the end of January caused damage of weak sows. Nevertheless, in addition to decreasing of areas under winter crops, we should be ready to their more significant damage than 2 last years.
Due to seeds cutting in 2006 we forecast increasing of spring sowings share. We are expecting total area spring crops about 9.1 mln ha, up 18 % a year ago.
As for foreign trade prospects of main grain crops in 2006/07 MY:
- Wheat export of 5.7 mln tones due to excessive supply in the current year. To date the total export wheat volumes is 5 mln tones. In new 2006/07 MY we expect not only export decreasing to 2.5 mln tons but also wheat importing. Our estimation for wheat import is 1 mln tons.
- Barley export decreasing due to gross yield drop. We forecast barley export in 2006/07 MY is 3.6 mln tons. To date total barley export reached 3.3 mln tons. In the next season export will increase to 4 mln tons due to producing growth expectations.
- Maize export is expected at 2.4 mln tons. For passed 6 months of maize season (October-March) total export hardly reached 2 mln tons. We forecast total supply decreasing which will lead to export drop to 1.8 mln tons.