APK-Inform raises grain production forecast in Ukraine in 2021/22 MY




APK-Inform raised its forecast of production of grains and pulses in Ukraine in 2021/22 MY to 75.6 mln tonnes. It is up by 2% compared to the previous estimation (73.8 mln tonnes) and up by 16% compared to the result of 2020 (64.9 mln tonnes).

Wheat production is estimated at 28.3 mln tonnes (+14% to 2020/21 MY and +4% to July forecast), barley - 8 mln tonnes (+5% and +0.5%) and corn - 36.2 mln tonnes (+22% and +2%).

“We raised our grain production forecast basing on high yield of early crops. But we should remember about the weather factor. Heavy rains observed across Ukraine delay the progress of the harvesting campaign and cause local lodging of crops that complicates wheat and barley harvesting and may result in higher losses. As to corn, we revised up our forecast, as the current weather conditions and sufficient soil moisture content promote its development. Probably, Ukrainian farmers will manage to harvest the record high corn crop in 2021”, - Victoria Rozhko, the analysts of APK-Inform commented.

She added that yet it was difficult to estimate the quality parameters of grain of the harvest-2021. If the heavy rains continue, the grain quality can deteriorate, particularly moisture, gluten and protein contents.

“Today we have different information as to the quality of wheat. Some farmers inform about high quality of new-crop grain, other say the gluten content is low and the share of feed wheat will be higher that the share of milling wheat this year. It is too early to make any estimations yet”, - the expert summarized.