According to the last report by USDA, the production of wheat to decline by 0.5 mln tonnes to 6 mln tonnes in Uzbekistan in 2021/22 MY. At the same time, the domestic consumption of wheat will decrease by 0.2 mln tonnes only to 9.4 mln tonnes. Therefore, the deficit of locally produced wheat (excluding carry-over stocks) will be about 3.4 mln tonnes in 2021/22 MY compared to 3.1 mln tonnes in 2020/21 MY.
The same situation is expected for Afghanistan. The production of wheat will decline from 5 mln tonnes in 2020/21 MY to 4.4 mln tonnes in 2021/22 MY, while the domestic consumption will remain nearly unchanged at 7.7 mln tonnes (7.8 mln tonnes in the preceding season). Thus, the deficit of locally produced wheat can amount to 3.3 mln tonnes.
In Pakistan, the domestic production of wheat (27 mln tonnes) matches the consumption volume in 2021/22 MY. In Kazakhstan, the crop size at 12.5 mln tonnes will more than double the consumption needs, despite the expected decrease of production.
The common production of wheat in these four countries will reach 49.9 mln tonnes in 2021/22 MY, while the overall consumption is set at 50.2 mln tonnes. The common import to these countries is expected at 9.3 mln tonnes, including 2.6 mln tonnes for Pakistan (3.5 mln tonnes in 2020/21 MY), 3.2 mln tonnes for Uzbekistan (3.5 mln tonnes) and 3 mln tonnes for Afghanistan (3 mln tonnes).
The development of wheat market in Central Asia is one of the key topics at the international conference Asia Grains&Oils Conference in Tashkent (September 8-10).
