According to the State Customs Service of Ukraine, in July-February 2021/22 MY, the country exported 18.1 mln tonnes of wheat, up 32% y/y. Further export is doubtful, as the Russian invasion in Ukraine resulted in the suspension of functioning of ports of the Black sea and the Sea of Azov.
“Ukraine exports 99% of its wheat by sea. Currently, the export is shifting toward railway transportation through western borders with the EU countries. However, it requires certain time. Capacity of border stations is much lower compared to the seaports. Additionally, the logistic process is under tension now due to the need to transport humanitarian cargoes and resources from the EU. European ports are loaded with its own cargoes. Supplies of Ukrainian wheat to the EU is low (less than 2% in 2021). Moreover, it is difficult to form export bathes in Ukraine due to geographical and safety reasons. Additionally, there is export licensing for wheat in Ukraine. There is a background to restrict issuing of export licenses for wheat to provide sufficient reserves to grant food security of Ukraine”, – analysts of APK-Inform said.
In March, APK-Inform has cut export potential of Ukrainian wheat for 2021/22 MY to 18.3 mln tonnes that is still 10% higher compared to 2020/21 MY.
Carry-over stocks of wheat will amount to 5.9 mln tonnes in Ukraine in 2021/22 MY, up 2.8 times y/y. However, some part of the stocks is in the regions of high risk and can be considered as losses.
More detailed information about our forecasts for 2021/22 MY export as well as prospects for 2022/23 MY you can find here.