Dynamics of grains and oilseeds production in countries of the Danube river basin

 

Grain crops

During five recent seasons, major countries of the Danube river basin (Ukraine, Moldova, Serbia, Bulgaria, Germany, Croatia, Hungary, Romania) provided nearly 8.5% of the global production of grains, which form the average annual harvest in the reporting countries at nearly 171 mln tonnes in total.

Dynamics of grain crops production in countries of the Danube river basin*, mln tonnes

 

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017 (forecast)

5-year average

Changes of 2017 to 2010

Grains total

133.4

154.6

131.5

169.2

180.3

164.9

174.1

165.4

170.8

24%

Wheat

57.1

64.1

55.1

69.7

74.1

75.4

75.1

71.1

73.1

25%

Barley

22.5

21.5

20.6

22.0

25.2

24.4

25.4

22.6

23.9

0.4%

Corn

44.5

59.5

44.5

65.3

69.4

54.4

62.8

61.1

62.6

37%

* Ukraine, Moldova, Serbia, Bulgaria, Germany, Croatia, Hungary, Romania

 

Wheat covers the largest share (nearly 43%) in the structure of grains production in the region (nearly 73.1 mln tonnes per year for five recent years). Corn covers nearly 37% (62.6 mln tonnes) and barley - 14% (23.9 mln tonnes). At the same time, the general harvest volumes of barley in the region forms almost 17% of the global production of the grain, while in the wheat segment the figure totals nearly 10%, and the corn segment varies slightly more than 6%.

As for the trends in development of the grain segment in the reporting countries, analysts estimated the average annual growth of production volumes during five recent seasons at 5.4%. In particular, the harvest volumes of wheat increased by nearly 5.8% annually, barley - up 2.3%, and corn - up 8.8%.

In the current stage of development, Moldova demonstrates the most significant increase in production. During 5 recent seasons, the country increased grain crops production by 27%, including the wheat segment - nearly 24% per year, barley - up 19%, and corn - up 31%. Also, Serbia reached a significant annual increase in grain crops production (27%, 24%, 8%, and 17%), as well as Romania (13%, 10%, 14%, and 17%, respectively). The other countries, including Ukraine, have relatively stable dynamics of grains production.

Also, it should be noted that in terms of rather difficult agro-meteorological conditions in the current season, the general production of grain crops in countries of the Danube river basin is expected to decrease to 165.4 mln tonnes, down 5% compared with the previous season (174.1 mln tonnes). In particular, wheat production volumes will reduce by 5%, barley - down 11%, and corn - down 3%.

 

Oilseed crops

 

Countries of the Danube river basin really play the important role in formation of the oilseed raw material supply, and demonstrate the upward trend in the crops production volumes, and provide nearly 8% of the global oilseeds production. In 2017, the region is expected to produce a record harvest of three major oilseed crops (sunflower seed, rapeseed, soybeans) at 36.7 mln tonnes, up 51% compared with the figures in 2010.

Dynamics of oilseed crops production in countries of the Danube river basin*, mln tonnes

 

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017 (forecast)

5-year average

Changes of 2017 to 2010

Oilseeds total

24.3

25.3

23.9

31.2

33.3

31.9

36.2

36.7

33.9

51%

Sunflower seed

12.7

15.1

14.1

18.0

17.8

18.1

22.0

21.4

19.5

68%

Rapeseed

9.2

7.2

6.9

9.7

10.8

8.8

8.7

9.9

9.6

7%

Soybeans

2.4

3.0

2.9

3.4

4.7

5.0

5.5

5.5

4.8

131%

* Ukraine, Moldova, Serbia, Bulgaria, Germany, Croatia, Hungary, Romania

 

 

Due to the presence of Ukraine among countries of the region, the Danube river basin is the main region in the world for growing of sunflower seed, and covers almost one half of the global production of the oilseed. In addition, Romania, Bulgaria and Hungary are the major players in the reporting market segment, which together with Ukraine will provide record and almost record harvest volumes of sunflower seed in 2017. During five recent years, the average annual growth in the oilseed production reached 9.3%, and in 2017 the harvest volumes will total 21.4 mln tonnes.

Rapeseed is the second traditional oilseed crop in the region, which share totals 25-30% in the general production structure of three oilseed crops (nearly 9.6 mln tonnes for five recent years). The region continues annually increasing rapeseed production by nearly 9.2%. At the same time, the region covers nearly 13.5% in the global production of the oilseed, while Germany and Ukraine take the leading positions.

The production of soybeans in the region totals nearly 10-15% in the production structure of all other oilseeds, due to the fact that some countries in the region almost do not produce the oilseed - Moldova, Bulgaria, Germany. Ukraine is the leader in soybean production of not only the region, but also in Europe and the CIS countries. During several recent years, Ukraine demonstrated a significant increase of the interest on both oilseed processing industry and traders in soybean growing. As a result, the region provides the average annual growth rate of soybean production at 14.4%, which is the highest one among all oilseed crops.

 

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