Competition between Kazakhstan and Russia increased significantly on the grain and oilseed markets of Central Asia during the last three seasons. According to customs statistics, the key importer of food in the region – Afghanistan – systematically reduces the purchase of Kazakh wheat flour and significantly increased the import of Russian flour. In 2020/21 MY, the supply of Russian flour to Afghanistan amounted to less than 4.5 thsd tonnes, while it exceeded 100 thsd tonnes in 2021/22 MY. At the same time, Kazakhstan reduced the export of flour to Afghanistan to 1074 thsd tonnes in 2021/22 MY against 1147 thsd tonnes in 2020/21 MY.
The situation is opposite in the segment of sunflower oil. The Kazakh product are systematically replacing Russian oil on the Afghan market. Thus, in 2021/22 MY, the export of Kazakh sunflower oil to Afghanistan increased by 4.2 times and reached 15.4 thsd tonnes. At the same time, supplies of Russian oil decreased by 4.3 times to 6.6 thsd tonnes. In 2019/20 MY, Russia supplied 80.3 thsd tonnes of sunflower oil to Afghanistan. Thus the supplied decreased by almost 12.2 times over three seasons.
At the same time, almost complete substitution of Kazakh wheat by Russian origin is observed on the market of Kyrgyzstan. In 2021/22 MY, grain supplies from Russia reached 220.2 thsd tonnes, which is 3.1 times more than in the previous season. At the same time, supplies of Kazakh wheat decreased to a minimum of 9.1 thsd tonnes, which is 2.6 times lower than in the previous season and 10 times less than in 2019/20 MY.
Taking into account the sanctions restrictions for supplies from Russia and the high export potential of both the grain and oilseed markets of Russia, further strengthening of competition from Russian products on the traditional markets of Kazakhstan is expected this season.
We will discuss the trends of grain and oilseed markets of Central Asia at Asia Grains&Oils Conference in Qazaqstan 2022.
Register for participation! See you on November 10-11 in Astana, Radisson HOTEL, ASTANA.
