The war in Ukraine significantly affected the volume and geography of Ukrainian grain exports. Thus, the shipments of wheat from Ukraine amounted to 4.997 mln tonnes in July-October 2022, which is 60% lower than the same figure last season, Head of Business projects unit with APK-Inform Andriy Kupchenko said during the international Asia Grains & Oils Conference in Qazaqstan 2022 in Astana on November 11.
"The development of the Ukrainian grain market is determined by several important factors in the current season, such as production reduction (as a result of a decrease in planted areas, the occupation of grain-growing regions of the country, non-compliance with agro-technological methods), change in commodity flows, corresponding reorientation of logistics and its significant growth of logistics expenses. In such a situation, the future of Ukrainian grain exports it is very difficult to predict", – the expert emphasized.
Nevertheless, he announced two forecasts of wheat exports from Ukraine in 2022/23 MY. According to the optimistic forecast, Ukraine will export 13.8 mln tonnes of wheat, down by 27% y/y. According to the pessimistic scenario, the export of wheat will amount to 8.1 mln tonnes, down 57% y/y.
As for buyers of Ukrainian wheat, the first place traditionally belongs to Turkey. For 4 months of the season, a little more than 1 mln tonnes of wheat were shipped to Turkey, which virtually matches the results over the same period of the last season. At the same time, due to the restructuring of logistics with the focus on the land transportation, Romania (919 thsd tonnes) took the second place in the list of buyers of Ukrainian wheat for the first time. Spain imported 692 thsd tonnes of Ukrainian wheat (against 102 thsd tonnes last season) and Poland bought 254 thsd tonnes (0.8 thsd tonnes in July-October 2021).
At the same time, such traditional large buyers of Ukrainian wheat as Egypt and Indonesia sharply reduced the imports. Egypt bought only 176 thsd tonnes of wheat from Ukraine (1.58 mln tonnes year ago), and Indonesia – only 144 thsd tonnes against 2.62 mln tonnes.
The opening of the "grain corridor" helped to spur the export of Ukrainian wheat in August-October 2022, explained A. Kupchenko.
