The fact that Kazakhstan will increase purchases of Russian grain this season is a completely obvious story. The demand for Russian grain, primary wheat, will be higher this season from Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, Afghanistan and Kyrgyzstan, says Vladimir Petrichenko, General Director of ProZerno to APK-Inform.
“Recently, the USDA has surprised everyone with its forecasts of grain production. In August, USDA lowered very sharply its forecast of Russian wheat production to 72.5 mln tonnes after its unreasonable increase to the outrageous 86 mln tonnes in June and 85 mln tonnes in July. At the same time, they are too optimistic for Ukraine with the forecast of wheat crop at 33 mln tonnes (30 mln tonnes in July)”, - he says.
Additionally, V. Petrichenko considers the August forecast of the USDA on Kazakh wheat production (12.5 mln tonnes) is completely unreasonably optimistic.
"It's impossible. Perhaps only on paper. In reality, it will be much less than 12 mln tonnes, or, in my opinion, even about 11 mln tonnes. It will be more than 3 mln tonnes lower than the last year's 14.258 mln tonnes according to official data from Kazstat. Kazakhstan produced 20.07 mln tonnes of grain last season. The latest forecast of this season’s grain crop is announced by the Ministry of Agriculture of Kazakhstan at 15.3 mln tonnes. This is almost 5 mln tonnes lower than the last year. The main downward trend will observe for wheat of course. So the most realistic figure for wheat production in Kazakhstan in 2021/22 MY is 10-11 mln tonnes”,- the expert explains.
Given that the worst production situation was observed in the southern part of Kazakhstan, which borders on Uzbekistan, one can expect that the volume of Uzbek wheat crop will also be low. So far, according to the USDA, the wheat production in Uzbekistan will decline from 6.51 mln tonnes in 2020 to 6 mln tonnes this year, but this is also extremely optimistic. Accordingly, the demand for Russian grain, and primary for wheat, from Uzbekistan will increase in the current season, as well as from Tajikistan, Afghanistan, Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan.
Vladimir Petrichenko will tell more about forecasts of grain production and export potential of Russia in MY 2021/22 within the international conference Asia Grains&Oils Conference in Tashkent-2021, which will be held on September 8-10 in the capital of sunny Uzbekistan (hotel International Tashkent) and will also be available on ZOOM platform.