The global production of durum wheat could reach the record high in 2020/21 MY, however, the outlook of supply and demand balance is highly mixed, declared the Senior Economist at the International Grains Council, Amy Reynolds within the online conference DURUM WHEAT: TRENDY NICHE OF 2020 held by APK-Inform on July 21.
“We expect the world production of durum wheat to climb by 2% to 34.2 mln tonnes in 2020/21 MY, but remain about 6% below the average in the preceding five years. The output in the major exporters to rise, largely on an expected bigger crop in Canada (up 22.6% to 6.1 mln tonnes) and the USA (up 4.2% to 1.5 mln tonnes) due to the extension of the planted areas. The durum wheat crop could fall again in the EU, and the output could be the lowest over the last 19 years – 7.4 mln tonnes, down 1.6% compared to 2019/20 MY. The durum wheat production to be at 1.6 mln tonnes in Mexico (down 7.9%).
At the same time, the above 5-years average crop could be achieved in Canada only (+6%), while this figure will fall significantly for the other key producers and exporters: USA – down 25%, EU – down 14%, Mexico – down 17%,”- the expert explained.
Despite the expected rise in world durum wheat production in 2020/21 MY, total supplies are seen 1.7% lower y/y to 42.8 mln tonnes because of smaller opening stocks (8.6 mln tonnes in 2020/21 MY, down 14% y/y). The ending stocks could fall sharply to 7.7 mln tonnes (-10.2%) due to the expected decline in both exporting (to 8 years low) and importing (to 6 years low) countries.
“On average, North Africa accounts for about 40% of world durum imports. Aggregate production in North Africa seen 9% below average, including Tunisia (-1%) and Morocco (-57%). Despite this, the global trade will decline by 4.4% to 9 mln tonnes”, - A.Reynolds pointed out.
She added that the global trade would be 5% above average on higher import needs in Morocco and low production in the EU.
“We need to pay our attention to import of durum wheat to Turkey. In 2019/20 MY Turkey increased the import to the record, mainly from Canada, Mexico and the EU. However, the country could decrease the import in 2020/21 MY due to accumulation of high stocks”, - the expert added.
