According to the data at the disposal of APK-Inform, Ukraine shipped 13.2 mln tonnes of grain in July-October 2022, down by 33% y/y (19.6 mln tonnes). The export of corn amounted to 7.1 mln tonnes (up 3 times y/y), wheat – almost 5 mln tonnes (-60%) and barley – 1.1 mln tonnes (-76%).
Since the signing of the "Black Sea Grain Initiative" to the end of October, 421 vessels with 9.7 mln tonnes of Ukrainian agricultural products left three Odesa ports, including 4.3 mln tonnes of corn, 2.8 mln tonnes of wheat and 319 thsd tonnes of barley. As of November 16, 11.1 mln tonnes of agricultural products have already been shipped from Ukraine to the world market through the "grain corridor", of which 42% is corn, 30% – wheat, and almost 4% – barley. In general, more than 60% of Ukrainian grain exports are carried out through the corridor, but even with the announced extension of the "grain agreement" the risks of its disruption remain significant.
APK-Inform sees grain export potential in 2022/23 MY at 40.3 mln tonnes (-23% y/y) under the optimistic scenario (“grain corridor” is functioning), including 13.8 mln tonnes of wheat (-27%), 2.4 mln tonnes of barley (-58%) and 24 mln tonnes of corn (-11%).
Under the pessimistic scenario, Ukraine will export only 24.3 mln tonnes of grain (-53%), including 8.1 mln tonnes of wheat (-57%), 2 mln tonnes of barley (-65%), 14.1 mln tonnes of corn (-48%).