According to the modeling of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the risks of winter wheat production will be minimal in Ukraine until 2040, declared Cand. Sc. Geography, Head of the Agrometeorology department at the Ukrainian hydrometeorological center, Tetyana Adamenko within GMD Conference 2020: Summer Edition on August 20.
“We already see the reduction of wintering, recession of winterkilling risks, early spring aftergrowing, lowering of spring drought risks. Winter precipitation are absorbed by soils providing sufficient moisture content for spring. Modelling results shows the possibility to increase winter wheat yield by average 20-30% due to climatic condition”, - the expert pointed out.
At the same time, she told about possible risks of corn and spring barley shortage in the mid-term. Southeastern and partially central regions could face the most significant decline of corn and spring barley yield (-15-20%) on shorter vegetation period due to early ripening.
“Ukraine has good prospects of production of grain, sunflower, soybean for the next 10-15 years using advanced technologies and adaptation. However, in case of catastrophic conditions, we do not have good prospects to compensate grain crops shortage. In the recent years, the climate turned to be more unified in Ukraine. If we have drought, we have it across almost the entire territory and do not have the possibility of climatic compensation. Today, there is no clear trend of precipitation changes and it is the reason for growing variability of weather conditions”, - T.Adamenko summarized.