In 2018/19 MY, Ukraine will possibly decrease wheat exports by 2.2 mln tonnes compared with last year volumes — to 15.5 mln tonnes, in terms of the expected decline of the grain harvest in the current year by 6.6%, as well as the signed Memorandum of Understanding between the Ministry of Agrarian Policy and market participants for the current season, declared the CEO at Spike Invest Solutions, Andrey Novoselov during his report within frames of the international conference Middle East Grains & Oils Congress in Cairo, Egypt, on March 11.
At the same time, in 2018/19 MY corn production in Ukraine will sharply increased — up almost 12 mln tonnes, to 36.5 mln tonnes. So, in the reporting season the grain exports can reach 27.9 mln tonnes (up 9.9 mln tonnes).
In July-February, Ukraine exported 12.2 mln tonnes of wheat, which was somewhat lower compared with the last year figures of 13.1 mln tonnes. The high spread between the prices of Black Sea wheat and Chicago wheat became one of the major reasons for the situation development. Therefore, it signifies that Black Sea wheat is slightly overpriced, and should fall in price to stay competitive not only with the US but also with EU grain. At the same time, Ukraine provided more active shipments of corn on foreign markets, which exceeded the figures both of the last season, and the average annual figures for 5 recent years. Almost every month of the current season, exporters shipped the record volumes of corn, and in February 2019 the exports reached the maximum level of 3.7 mln tonnes, the speaker said.
According to V.Novoselov, wheat production in Ukraine may increase by 7.5% — to 26.6 mln tonnes, so the export potential of the country totals 17 mln tonnes. At the same time, in the upcoming season corn production will slightly reduce — to 32.4 mln tonnes (down 11% y-o-y), and the exports — to 26 mln tonnes (down 7%).
Please, follow our news and updates at the conferences web-page!
