Traditional importers of Black Sea wheat to lower purchases in 2020/21 MY




According to USDA, such traditional markets for Ukrainian and Russian wheat as Turkey, Bangladesh and Philippines could lower the import of wheat in 2020/21 MY.

Thus, Philippines could import 7 mln tonnes of wheat in 2020/21 MY, down 35% compared to the preceding season. This decline is very negative mainly for Ukraine who covered 15% of wheat supply to Philippines in 2019/20 MY. The share of Russia reached 2% only.

USDA forecast decline of wheat import by 2% in Turkey in 2020/21 MY. Ukraine and Russia covered 87% of the total supply of wheat to Turkey in 2019/20 MY. Russian wheat dominates on this market, its share reached 74% last season. Lower import will base on higher inner wheat production in Turkey, high carry-over stocks accumulated after massive import in the preceding season, expiration of governmental decision on export of flour produced from imported wheat and expected decline of wheat products export amid lower demand from importers due to the pandemic.  

Bangladesh will import 7 mln tonnes in 2020/21 MY, down 0.5%. Competition between Ukraine and Russia are the highest on this market. The shares of Ukrainian and Russian wheat totaled 33% and 34% correspondingly here in 2019/20 MY.

“Despite this situation, Ukraine will be able to realize fully its export potential amid decline of wheat production, while Russia will be forced to look for the new markets or strengthen its positions on the traditional markets”, - APK-Inform analysts supposed.

You can find full information about prospects of import of Black Sea wheat in 2020/21 in our article.