During a meeting in Istanbul on July 13, the delegations from Ukraine, Russia, Turkey and the UN reached some progress as to the sea export from Ukraine. After that, the UN confirmed that the countries were aimed to sign the agreement in the nearest future. However, the market remains pessimistic on unblocking of the ports or their long-lasting operating if the work to be resumed.
Sunflower oil is among the key products of Ukrainian oilseed sector that strongly need the ports to become unblocked. Prior to the war, 96-97% of the overall sunflower oil export was transported by sea. Since the beginning of the war, the share of sea transportation (mainly through Reni and Izmail ports) decreased to 42% amid low capacity of functioning terminals.
According to preliminary estimation by APK-Inform, in case of the unblocking of the ports before the start of the new season, Ukraine would be able to export 4.6 mln tonnes of sunflower oil in 2022/23 MY (+5% from 2021/22 MY, but the second lowest since 2015/16 MY after 2021/22 MY). Even if the ports are unblocked, the export of sunflower oil will not reach prior-to-war level amid lower sunflower seed crop and strong export of the oilseed. Moreover, the ports are under constant risk of missile attack.
You can get more detailed information about prospects of oilseed market in Ukraine within online conference UKRAINIAN OILSEEDS MARKET: OPTIMISTIC OR PESSIMISTIC OUTLOOK that will be held on August 4, 2022.