The implementation of the export duty on Russian wheat in 2020/21 MY would be an exaggerated restrictive measure as the export potential of Russian wheat is “rather high” due to the close to record crop this year, declared the Head of the analytical center at Rusagrotrans JSC, Igor Pavensky.
Current forecast of Russian wheat export outside the EAEU is 38.5 mln tonnes for 2020/21 MY that is the second highest after the record 40.8 mln tonnes in 2017/18 MY. About 25 mln tonnes will be shipped in the first half of the season (July-December).
“The implementation of the export duty may cut this volume by one-third as our supplies would be replaced by other countries who have high crop and export potential this year. Preliminary, it would be Baltic countries, Poland, Canada and Australia”, - the expert said.
He added that there already are tenders for delivery of wheat in January-February 2021.
“The implementation of the export duty in Russia will impact the economy of deals and hurt exporters”, - the analyst pointed out.
