APK-Inform cut Ukrainian grain export potential forecast in 2020/21 MY




APK-Inform reduced its forecast of Ukrainian grain export to 50.9 mln tonnes in 2020/21 MY, down 0.5% compared to previous forecast and down 7% compared to 2019/20 MY.

Wheat export forecast was remained unchanged at 17.5 mln tonnes (down 15% compared to 2019/20 MY) as well as corn export forecast – 28.5 mln tonnes (-1%), at the same time barley export potential was declined to 4.2 mln tonnes (-7% compared to September forecast and -16% year-on-year).

According to experts, the lower export potential forecasts were caused by the reduction of grains and pulses production forecasts in Ukraine in 2020/21 MY. In particular, as of October report the total grains production is expected at 70 mln tonnes (-2% month-on-month), which is also 7% lower compared to 2019/20 MY. The wheat crop forecast was lowered to 25.1 mln tonnes (-2% m-o-m; -12% y-o-y), barley – to 8 mln tonnes (-6%; -10%), and corn – to 34.8 mln tonnes (-1%; 3%).

Also, the experts noted that export deliveries of grain in the beginning of the season correspond the mention corrections. Thus, in July-September Ukraine exported 12.3 mln tonnes of grains and pulses, which is 7% higher year-on-year and totals 24% of the total export potential of Ukrainian grain export in 2020/21 MY.