After Russia's invasion in Ukraine, almost the entire agricultural sector of the country found itself at risk. The most burning issue is the planting campaign. Taking into account the military danger as well as the influence of the agro-climatic factor, regional analysis of the long-term dynamics of crop yields and other factors, APK-Inform analysts made their first forecasts of the next harvest of grains and oilseeds in Ukraine under military conditions.
Hostilities endanger the planting campaign in 9 Ukrainian oblasts – Chernihiv, Sumy, Kyiv, Kharkiv, Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, Kherson and Mykolaiv. Partially risky areas are located in the Zhytomyr, Poltava and Dnipropetrovsk oblasts.
For the 2022 crop, farmers planted 7.6 mln ha with winter grains, down 7% y/y and virtually unchanged compared to 2020. The war and its consequences will lead to more significant decrease of planted area under spring grains and pulses – to 4.7 mln ha, down 39% y/y.
At the same time, the total area under oilseeds in the country in 2022, according to our estimates, may decrease to the lowest since 2010 – 6.8-6.9 mln ha, taking into account the areas already planted with winter rapeseed. Sunflower seed will traditionally account for the largest share – 61% (73% in 2021). About 21% and 17% can be planted with rapeseed and soybeans correspondingly (12% and 15% in 2021).
We expect a decrease of the yields due to limited access to appropriate resources in some oblasts as well as a reduction of harvested area, which will depend on the situation in the region.
Accordingly, we estimate the total production of grains and oilseeds in 2022 at 53.3 mln tonnes, which is 51% lower than the record level of the previous season. Grain production may become the lowest in 15 years, and oilseeds crop may turn the lowest in 10 years.
However, these production volumes are sufficient to meet the domestic needs of Ukraine.
For more information on the formation of spring crops of the harvest 2022 as well as on the provision of resources and support from business and the state, you can find in our article “Wartime food balance in Ukraine. Part 1. Formation of planted areas and the production structure”.