This year Kazakhstan has a record harvest of grain. In the threshold of holding of the Second International conference “Kazakh Grain Forum-2007” the President of the Grain Union of Kazakhstan, Nurlan Tleubayev, told about the prospects and priority lines of development of grain industry of the republic in the exclusive interview with APK-Inform.
- Nurlan Saktapbergenovich, what are the roles, aims and goals of the Grain Union of Kazakhstan (GUK) on Kazakh market? GUK is a public organization or player of the agricultural market?
- Grain Union of Kazakhstan is a public nonprofit organization in the form of consolidation of legal persons. Our main purpose is forming and development of the grain market of Kazakhstan and security of interest of the participants of GUK.
- How do you appraise the state and potential of the domestic grain market of the republic?
- The potential of Kazakh grain market is high. You can judge about this by rise of the sowing areas. They increase annually from 300 to 600 thsd. ha. Moreover, Kazakhstan has further potential for such rise. In prospect, the sowing area will increase to 25 mln ha. Last year, grain harvest in bunker weight totaled 18.4 mln tonnes, and in the current year, according to Ministry of Agriculture of Kazakhstan, - 22.4 mln tonnes. These figures speak for themselves.
- President of Kazakhstan set the agrarians of the republic the task - to take the leading positions in the world export of wheat. Last year, this task was partly carried out. How do you estimate the role of Kazakhstan on the world market today?
- Really, estimating potential of agro industrial complex of the country President of Kazakhstan has set a task to be in the top five leading countries-exporters of wheat 2 years ago. We are sure that we will do this. The rates of grain production in the republic for the last years are dramatic confirmation of this fact. If you appraise the current situation on the world grain market attentively you will see that today Kazakhstan is in the 7th place on wheat export after the USA, Canada, EU-countries, Argentina, Australia and Russia.
According to the International Grain Council, the EU countries will export about 10.3-10.5 mln tonnes of wheat in the current year. At the same time, these countries will import 6-7 mln tonnes of wheat. As a result balance is within the limits of 3 mln tonnes. Kazakhstan will export 8-9 mln tonnes of wheat but will not import grain. Thus, if not to account EU, Kazakhstan goes a line up in the rating of the countries-exporters of wheat today. According to the forecasts, Australia will have wheat harvest at 10-12 mln tonnes and domestic consumption at 7 mln tonnes. As a result, only 5 mln tonnes are “free”. Add 4-6 mln tonnes of carry-over stock to this figure. And you get about 10 mln tonnes. According to the International Grain Council, Australia will export approximately 10 mln tonnes of grain. According to our data, this year Kazakhstan ill be able to export 10 mln tonnes. And if to add flour in terms of grain we pretend to enter to the top five countries-wheat export leaders.
- What are the main directions of export in the current season and its prospects in your opinion?
- Today, a well-defined tendency of the deliveries of Kazakh grain to the foreign countries has been outlined. Generally, these are the countries of the Northern Africa and Europe. The deliveries of grain are noted to the countries which did not almost buy Kazakh grain. For example, India. The ratio of Kazakh wheat export is 70% to the far abroad and 30% - to the near abroad and this trend will be kept in future.
- How the last year showed the infrastructure of the market was not ready in full to the active export of grain. What are the main problems which Kazakh traders face while exporting?
- The main problem which was observed last year is lack of carriers. This question is annually on the agenda. The main peak loads to the railroad take place in October, November, December and January. Nowadays, Ukraine assists us in the carriers. In Russia due to impeding imposition of export duties for grain on November, 12, one can note high activity in export of grain onto the world market for sale. In connection with this fact, one started accumulating the carriers in the ports of shipment and this will cause more shortage of the carriers in Russia as well as in Kazakhstan.
- What is your attitude to the idea of creation of grain OPEC?
- We consider creation of such association as impossible today. The idea of creation of grain OPEC is not more than a declaration. The countries-producers of grain have their own domestic problems and it is doubtful whether they will want to merge to any international structure. The countries of oil OPEC cannot sort oil out and it cannot be denied about grain OPEC. Therewith, grain is essential goods.
- What are the segments of the grain market of Kazakhstan more attractive for Kazakh and foreign investors?
- There is no doubt that there are all segments connecting with production of wheat, barley and rapeseeds. We consider these crops as the most promising.
- How is the subject of deep processing of grain prospective for Kazakh market?
- As concerns grain processing, this year Kazakhstan took the first place in the world on flour export. For the last 2-3 years the countries of EU have been in the lead, and then Turkey followed. Kazakhstan took the third place. Last 2006.07 MY Kazakhstan took the first position and exported flour in the volume of 1461 thsd. tonnes.
One more by-product of grain is biofuel. But taking into account rise in world prices for grain, production of biofuel becomes less profitable. The high prices for oil favouring support of biofuel production on the effective level save the situation.
- How do you estimate the prospects of futures trade in Kazakhstan?
- Until the stock exchanges work actively in Kazakhstan, it is early to tell about the prospects of the futures trade.
- How do you appraise the results of the first international conference “Kazakh grain forum” which took place last year? What are you expecting for the forthcoming conference which will be held in Kazakhstan in the end of November?
- One can give a high appraisal for the last conference. We hope that this year it will be held on the top level. The influence of our country on the world grain market goes up, new prospects open in the grain trade within the bounds of the international cooperation Hope, that now holding the international grain forums will become traditional in Kazakhstan.
Gave a talk Nikolai Latyshev
