Rapid development of the industry of soybean production in Russia, and the potential for its further improvement, cause intense interest of the wide audience of market participants in the oilseed.
Development of the soybean production in Russia is one of the most important motivating factors for the operation and improvement of other related industries: oil-producing, fat-and-oil, forage producing, livestock, food, various commercial industries, and foreign trade.
Position of Russia on the world soybean market
To date the industry of soybean production in Russia is one of the very prospective and rapidly developing ones, which is evidenced by the trend of increasing of soybean production through growing of its planted areas, and improvement of agricultural technologies, observed in some recent years.
According to the USDA data, Russia is among the TOP-10 of the countries-leaders by planted areas of soybeans in the world, Russia covers nearly 1% of the general areas of the oilseed cultivation in the world. It should be noted that 10 years ago the share of Russia did not exceed 0.6%. Generally, in the period from 2004/05 MY to the current season the soybean planted areas in Russia increased by 3 times - to 1.5 mln ha.
Also, during recent years there was observed the positive trend in changing of soybean yield, which during the same 10 years increased by 36% - to 1.36 t/ha.
However, soybean yield indices in Russia are still behind the results of the largest countries-producers of the oilseed. Thus, in the current season the average soybean yield in the Russian Federation is more than two times lower compared with the USA and Argentina, and down 2.2 times compared with Brazil. At the same time, the yield of Russian soybeans is not the lowest one in the world, for example, in India the oilseed yield in the current season totals 0.9 t/ha, which is slightly lower than in Russia (1.36 t/ha).
During the observed 10-year period the general harvest volumes of soybeans in Russia increased from the level of 555 thsd tonnes (in 2004/05 MY) to 1.6 mln tonnes in the current season. But despite the positive trend of production, the share of Russia in the global soybean production does not exceed 1%, which is fairly low rate. At the same time, during several recent years there is observed a low-scale increase of the Russian share on the world market. In the current season the country occupies the 11th position in terms of soybean production in the world.
ТОР-15 of the world soybean producers, `000 tonnes |
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№ |
Country |
2011/12 |
2012/13 |
2013/14 |
2014/15* |
Changes of 2014/15 to 2013/14 |
|
1 |
USA |
84 192 |
82 561 |
89 507 |
98 929 |
11% |
|
2 |
Brazil |
66 500 |
82 000 |
87 500 |
91 000 |
4% |
|
3 |
Argentina |
40 100 |
49 300 |
54 000 |
54 000 |
0% |
|
4 |
China |
14 485 |
13 050 |
12 200 |
12 000 |
-2% |
|
5 |
India |
11 000 |
11 500 |
11 000 |
12 000 |
9% |
|
6 |
Paraguay |
4 043 |
8 300 |
8 100 |
8 200 |
1% |
|
7 |
Canada |
4 298 |
5 086 |
5 200 |
6 100 |
17% |
|
8 |
Uruguay |
2 726 |
3 650 |
3 500 |
3 400 |
-3% |
|
9 |
Ukraine |
2 196 |
2 338 |
2 663 |
3 360 |
26% |
|
10 |
Bolivia |
2 320 |
2 660 |
2 310 |
2 500 |
8% |
|
11 |
Russia |
1 756 |
1 806 |
1 636 |
2 259 |
38% |
|
12 |
EU-28 |
1 220 |
948 |
1 232 |
1 425 |
16% |
|
13 |
South Africa |
650 |
785 |
868 |
920 |
6% |
|
14 |
Indonesia |
620 |
600 |
620 |
620 |
0% |
|
15 |
Nigeria |
564 |
450 |
450 |
450 |
0% |
|
|
Others |
2 855 |
2 819 |
3 001 |
2 832 |
-6% |
|
|
Total |
239 525 |
267 853 |
283 788 |
299 995 |
6% |
|
* Forecast |
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Sources: USDA (June 2014), APK-Inform Agency |
Due to increasing of soybean production, Russia managed to considerably strengthen its positions on the global market. According to the USDA, in the current season Russia closes the TOP-10 of the countries-leaders by soybean exports. According to APK-Inform data, in the current season soybean exports from Russia will reach 50 thsd tonnes, while in 2009/10 MY the oilseed shipments on foreign markets totaled 105 tonnes only. However, the share of Russia in the global exports of the oilseed is quite low - less than 1%. The Far Eastern District is the most export-oriented region of Russia: the region exports most of the produced oilseed volumes to China.
Russian soybean is more focused on domestic processing than the export market: for example, more than 90% of the available contracts in the country fall on soybean domestic consumption.
Generally, despite the positive dynamics of soybean exports, Russia still remains a net importer of the oilseed, its import volume significantly exceeds the volume of its deliveries on foreign markets.
Conditionoftheproductionindustry
During 10 recent years there is observed an increase of the planted areas of major oilseeds in almost 2 times (from 5.7 mln ha to 10.1 mln ha). It is worth noting that all three major oilseeds – sunflower seed, rapeseed and soybeans – increased its planted areas.
In the structure of distribution of the planted areas of oilseeds in Russia, sunflower seed occupies the major share - nearly 72% of the general areas under oilseeds in 2013, the share of rapeseed - 13%, while the share of soybeans - 15%.
As for the production of major oilseeds, it should be noted that, despite the fact that sunflower seed is the main oilseed crop produced in Russia, its share in the general production continues decreasing during 10 recent years, thus increasing the shares of rapeseed and soybeans.
The soybean market in Russia can be called as the most dynamic one. During recent years there was observed the steadily increasing production indices of the oilseed. Thus, in 2004 the soybean harvest totaled 555 thsd tonnes, in 2012 Russia produced the record volumes of 1.8 mln tonnes, and in 2013 – 1.6 mln tonnes. It is worth noting that during 7 recent years the soybean production increased annually. At the same time, in 2013 the planted areas also broke the record - 1.5 mln ha. The record soybean yield was observed in 2011 (1.48 t/ha). In 2013 the soybean yield totaled 1.36 t/ha.
As for the main soybean growing regions in Russia, it should be noted that the planted areas are mainly located in the Far Eastern Federal District (in 2013 61% of the general soybean areas in the Russian Federation). Also, soybean areas are concentrated in such regions as the Central and Southern Federal Districts, last year there were located 20% and 12% of the oilseed areas, respectively.
Thus, the Far Eastern, Central and Southern Federal Districts cover more than 90% of the general areas of the oilseed in Russia.
Rating of the Federal Districts by areas, yield and production volumes of soybeans in Russia in 2013 |
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Districts |
Planted areas, `000 ha |
Districts |
Yield, c/ha |
Districts |
Production, `000 tonnes |
|
1 |
Far Eastern |
935,0 |
Southern |
19,7 |
Far Eastern |
646,8 |
2 |
Central |
308,5 |
Central |
16,9 |
Central |
505,0 |
3 |
Southern |
180,0 |
North Caucasian |
15,5 |
Southern |
342,5 |
4 |
Volga |
52,0 |
Volga |
14,6 |
Volga |
71,3 |
5 |
North Caucasian |
29,4 |
Ural |
11,9 |
North Caucasian |
44,3 |
6 |
Siberian |
20,8 |
Far Eastern |
10,3 |
Siberian |
20,2 |
7 |
Ural |
5,7 |
Siberian |
10,2 |
Ural |
6,0 |
8 |
Northwestern |
0,5 |
Northwestern |
5,5 |
Northwestern |
0,2 |
|
Russia |
1 531,8 |
Russia |
13,6 |
Russia |
1 636,3 |
Source: Rosstat |
According to analysts of APK-Inform Agency, in 2014 the planted areas of soybeans will reach its record of 1.72 mln ha, which will exceed the last year record by 12%. The planted areas will grow due to the increased demand for the oilseed and its by-products, on both the domestic and export markets. In the current season the soybean yield is expected to reach 1.43 t/ha, against 1.36 t/ha in 2013. Thus, the general harvest of the oilseed in 2014 is forecasted at 2.3 mln tonnes, up 38% compared with last year.
Forecast of APK-Inform Agency on soybean harvest in 2014 |
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2013 |
2014* |
Changes of 2014 to 2013 |
Planted areas, `000 ha |
1 531,8 |
1 715,6 |
12% |
Harvested areas, `000 ha |
1 203,1 |
1 575,7 |
31% |
Yield, c/ha |
13,6 |
14,3 |
5% |
Production, `000 tonnes |
1 636,3 |
2 259,1 |
38% |
* Forecast of APK-Inform Agency |
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Source: Rosstat |
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Supply and demand balances of soybeans in Russia, `000 tonnes |
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|
|
|
|
2011/12 |
2012/13 |
2013/14* |
2014/15* |
Beginning stocks |
140,3 |
146,9 |
72,2 |
108,4 |
Production (in clean weight) |
1 756,0 |
1 806,2 |
1 636,3 |
2 259,1 |
Imports |
740,5 |
716,6 |
1 400,0 |
930,0 |
Total supply |
2 636,8 |
2 669,6 |
3 108,4 |
3 297,6 |
Domestic consumption |
2 400,0 |
2 500,0 |
2 950,0 |
3 000,0 |
including processing at oil |
1 762,3 |
1 981,0 |
2 688,8 |
2 715,9 |
Exports |
89,9 |
97,5 |
50,0 |
170,0 |
General distribution |
2 489,9 |
2 597,5 |
3 000,0 |
3 170,0 |
Ending stocks |
146,9 |
72,2 |
108,4 |
127,6 |
* Forecast of APK-Inform Agency |
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Sources: Rosstat, APK-Inform Agency |
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Domesticprocessing
During several recent years the Russian fat-and-oil industry is dynamic developing industry sector. To date nearly 90% of the produced oilseed are focused for the domestic processing.
During several recent seasons the list of TOP-5 soybean processors includes the following companies: Sodrugestvo-soya CJSC, Irkutsk Fat-and-Oil Plant OJSC, Amuragrocenter JSCO, Primorskaya soya Fat-and-Oil Plant CJSC, and OJSC EFKO (Alekseyevka).
Main directions ofsoybean exports / imports
Despite the fact that in during recent seasons there is observed an increase of soybean export volumes, the oilseed is primarily the import-oriented one. Russia remains quite stable while selecting suppliers of the oilseed to the country. So, during several previous seasons, the countries of South and North America were the major exporters of soybeans to Russia (generally 90% of the exports). However, the EU-27 and CIS countries also make its small contribution to the delivery of soybeans to the territory of the Russian Federation.
According to the customs statistics, during several recent seasons Paraguay is the major supplier of soybeans to Russia.
Import of soybeans to Russia by countries |
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№ |
2012/13 MY |
2013/14 MY (September-May) |
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Countries |
Volumes, tonnes |
Countries |
Volumes, tonnes |
|
1 |
Paraguay |
474 013 |
Paraguay |
481 321 |
2 |
USA |
81 844 |
USA |
390 158 |
3 |
Brazil |
64 376 |
Brazil |
173 721 |
4 |
Ukraine |
41 436 |
Ukraine |
125 624 |
5 |
Uruguay |
27 859 |
Uruguay |
92 146 |
6 |
Lithuania |
26 250 |
Lithuania |
36 726 |
7 |
China |
239 |
Latvia |
3 790 |
8 |
Austria |
234 |
Denmark |
2 416 |
9 |
Canada |
191 |
Canada |
2 329 |
10 |
France |
65 |
Austria |
550 |
11 |
Serbia |
25 |
Serbia |
280 |
12 |
Belgium |
20 |
China |
245 |
13 |
Italy |
13 |
France |
119 |
|
Others |
17 |
Others |
170 |
|
TOTAL |
716 582 |
TOTAL |
1 309 595 |
Source: customs statistics of the Russian Federation |
We should note that Russia has the considerable potential in soybean production in terms of the yield growth, and in the nearest future the country is expected to increase the volume of the oilseed production, processing and exports.
ElenaKarasik,
oilseed market analyst of APK-Inform Agency