Forecast of yield and production of grains in 2016 – Ukrainian hydrometeorological centre

Source

APK-Inform

37739

 

Agrometeorological conditions during planting campaign and autumn vegetation period of winter crops were rather difficult in many oblasts due to drought that lead to late planting. Conditions were favorable during wintering and spring vegetation due to warm winter, early vegetation recovery, wet and warm spring.

Surveys showed that 39% of winter crops were in good and excellent condition, 36% in favorable by the late autumn. On 26% of total area seedling were underserved. Part of the area did not have sprouts (mainly in Dnepropetrovsk, Poltava and Kharkov oblasts).

Wintering period was crucial due to high level of underserved dropping. Winter in 2015-16 was extremely short (about 30 days against average 70-90 days) and warm with average temperature exceeding normal by 3-3.5°. Lower that normal temperature (by 3-5°) was seen only in the first ten days of January. There was no significant harm to the crops, dropping sparseness was minimal.

During early spring, the weather was warm with several cold snaps and formation of temporary snow cover (mid-March), however they were short and have not damaged crops.

Vegetation recovery mainly started in the first ten days of March due to very early and slow development of spring processes. Warm weather was not enough for full vegetation only in western and northern regions where just partial crops wakening was observed. Sufficient moisturization of topsoil and moderate temperature created favorable conditions for aftergrowth, acceptance and winter crops’ plant establishment. Sprouting started at empty fields.

Despite rather disparate aftergrowth, full vegetation recovery was achieved in northern regions by late March. Other regions saw active plants development.

Temperature during spring vegetation period was mainly optimal: average temperature during March 20-May 20 totaled 10-12.5° (8-10° last year) that stimulate plant development pace of which exceeded average level.

As of May 20, winter wheat and barley in northern, western and north-eastern oblasts saw continuation of footstalk growth and spike formation. The rest of the territory saw mass earing, southern oblasts faced spike blooming, Kherson and Odessa oblasts saw early kernel milk line of winter barley.

Plant height reached 35-70 cm, in the best fields – up to 100 cm. Density of planting totaled 350-800 spiciferous footstalks, in the best fields – up to 1400.

Soil moistening was determined by winter and spring precipitations. Cold period (November 2015-February 2016) brought above normal precipitations – 110-120%. Rains were typical for the short winter, low frost penetration facilitated soil moisture taking.

Moisture resource was the most favorable for winter grain crop formation due to good April-May rains. As of May 20, stocks of efficient moisture in soil metre-deep layer exceeded by 30-60 mm average multiyear level almost all over the territory.

93% of winter crops are in good and excellent condition against 82% year ago, its yield should be above average. 7% of winter crops are mainly in satisfactory condition against 18% in 2015, its yield could be a bit lower than average.

Taking to account real crop situation, stocks of efficient moisture in soil and weather forecast winter wheat yield can reach 3.96 t/ha this year, rye – 2.48 t/ha, barley – 3.25 t/ha.

Winter crops production with account of area can reach about 26.5 mln tonnes (29.6 mln tonnes in 2015). According to preliminary estimates, winter crops maturing will starts 1-2 weeks earlier than usually this year due to early spring processes in 2016.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Forecast of winter crops yield in Ukraine in 2016

 

Agro-climatic zones and oblasts

Yield,  t/ha

winter wheat

winter rye

winter barley

Steppe

Dnepropetrovsk

3.4

2.8

2.6

Donetsk

3.3

3.0

2.5

Zaporozhe

3.8

2.3

2.7

Kirovograd

4.3

3.0

3.1

Luhansk

2.8

2.7

2.4

Mykolaiv

3.2

2.4

2.8

Odessa

3.5

2.3

3.4

Kherson

3.5

1.9

3.1

Forest steppe

Vinnitsa

4..6

2.7

3.7

Kiev

4.6

2.5

3.7

Poltava

3.5

2.6

3.0

Sumy

4.5

3.0

2.7

Ternopol

4.5

2.8

4.0

Kharkov

4.0

3.2

3.2

Khmelnytskyi

5.5

3.9

4.2

Cherkassy

5.2

3.8

4.0

Chernovtsy

4.0

2.7

3.5

Polesye

Lutsk

4.1

2.3

3.8

Zhytomyr

3.6

2.2

3.2

Ivano-Frankivsk

4.5

2.5

3.9

Lvov

4.3

2.4

4.5

Rivne

4.5

2.4

4.0

Chernigov

4.1

2.3

3.1

Transcarpathian

3.1

2.3

2.9

Ukraine

3.96

2.48

3.25

2015

3.89

2.59

3.12

         

 

Forecast is made according to results of winter crops monitoring on weather stations, results of satellite-based monitoring, crops yield forecast model and calculations by CGMS system (European system for crops development conditions monitoring and crops yield forecasting).

www.meteo.gov.ua

 

 

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