Forecast of oilseeds production in Russia in 2018

This is the first report of APK-Inform Agency containing the forecasts of oilseeds crops in Russia in 2018. The data is based on the official statistics, polling of agrarians that let to obtain the information concerning the plans for the planting campaign in 2018.

In should be noted that the record crop of the previous season is the important feature of the future season of the both soybean and rapeseed markets, which can be seen through the first results of their production.

Planted areas in 2018

APK-Inform conducted its poll during the 2d and 3d ten-day periods of March among agrarians of Russia concerning their plans for the planting campaign in 2018. The results of the poll demonstrated that the majority of agrarians already decided on the areas under oilseeds and less than 5% of the respondents still do not have plans.

According to APK-Inform, in 2018 the general planted areas under oilseeds can reach 11.6 mln ha, which is only 3% lower than the record areas in 2017. In particular, the decrease of the major oilseeds areas may occur due to the decline of sunflower seed areas, which according to our estimations can reach 7.7 mln ha (+4.2% year-on-year). Thus, we considered that the soybean and rapeseed areas can reach 2.8 mln ha (+4.3%) and 1.2 mln ha (+19.4%), respectively. It should be noted that the soybean market has being increasing for 10 recent years, and 2018 is not going to be an exception.

Thus, according to the poll results 26% of the agrarians plan to increase the soybean areas in 2018, and 13% - to start planting it. The main reasons for these are adhering to crop rotation, high demand rate and the domestic consumption for the feed use. Nevertheless, 43% of the agrarians preferred not to change the areas under soybeans.

If we speak about spring rapeseed, it should be noted that more than 50% of the respondents increased the areas under the oilseed or started to plant it. The main reason for the increased interest in rapeseed is the adhering to crop rotation, competitive price and the high demand rate. Herewith, 37% of the agrarians are going to leave the rapeseed areas without any changes in 2018.

As for sunflower seed, it is going to stay the main crop among other oilseeds (66%). According to the poll results, 51% of the respondents plan to leave this crop without any changes, 27% - to increase the areas, 14% - to cut the areas. 4% of the respondents have not decided yet. However, if we consider the plans of the Ministry of Agriculture of the Russian Federation concerning the sunflower seed areas optimization, we consider that the planted areas under sunflower seed are going to decline slightly. The main reasons for the reduction are the crop rotation and increase of the areas under other crops (corn, spring wheat and barley). Thus, we estimate that in 2018 sunflower seed areas may decline by 4.2% to 7.7 mln ha, which 338 thsd ha less year-on-year.

Production forecast in 2018

According to APK-Inform estimations, in 2018 in Russia the oilseeds yield can reach 1.42 t/ha in comparison with 1.45 t/ha in 2017. If we consider the difference between the planted and harvested areas for the last several years we believe that the harvested areas in 2018 can reach 10.9 mln ha. Herewith the total oilseeds production can reach 15.5 mln tonnes which is 1% less y-o-y.

It is our assessment that in 2018 sunflower seed yield will be 1.41 t/ha (in clean weight) in comparison with 1.45 t/ha (clean weight) in 2017. If the estimated planted areas are 7.7 mln ha, than the harvested areas can reach 7.1 mln ha. Thus, in 2018 the production of sunflower seed is going to decline by 4.3% to 10 mln tonnes (clean weight).

We estimate the rapeseed areas within 1.1 mln ha, whereas the yield can reach 1.47 t/ha, and the production – 1.7 mln tonnes (clean weight).

The harvested areas under soybeans are estimated at the level of 2.7 mln ha, the yield – 1.42 t/ha, the production – 3.8 mln tonnes (clean weight).

In conclusion, we should note that the production of the oilseeds (sunflower seed, rapeseed and soybean) in Russia in 2018 is going to be rather high. Despite the possible reduction of the sunflower seed areas, we forecast the increase of the rapeseed and soybean areas to the new record. Thus, the weather conditions are favourable, the processing plants will have enough of the oilseeds. However, we should note that the first forecasts may change, due to the results of the planting campaign.

Elena Karasyk, Oilseed market analyst at APK-Inform Agency