Forecast of winter grain yields and harvest volumes in Ukraine in 2018 — Hydrometeorological Center

In many oblasts, the agro-meteorological conditions during the planting campaign and autumn vegetation period of crops for the harvest-2018 were rather troublesome, due to the long autumn drought period, which drove to the later dates of planting works throughout the major part of areas. In the overwintering period, and in the beginning of the spring vegetation processes, the agro-meteorological conditions developed in rather satisfactory way, due to the safe winter conditions which were safe for winter crops, which contributed to almost complete keeping of the crop areas, and formation of a large-scale level of precipitations in the cold period. They provided the adequate and optimum soil moistening under winter crops in the period of restoring of the vegetation processes.

The air temperature figures in the spring 2018 were quite abnormal. In March 2018, as opposed to several recent years, Ukraine faced somewhat winter weather conditions with the air temperature varying within the range of 0...-5°C, down nearly 1-5°C compared with the standard. Only in the extreme southern raions of the country, the average air temperature varied within the standard rates of +1...3.5°C.

As a result, spring processes developed in rather slow rates. There was no actual change from winter to spring, as well as the mass renewal of winter crops vegetation, until the end of March, except for southern oblasts. Most oblasts demonstrated a delay in beginning of active vegetation processes of winter crops in almost 1-3 weeks, compared with the average long-term periods.

However, in the first ten-day period of April the air temperature figures started rapidly increasing, winter crops resumed its vegetation processes, and entered the period of rapid growth.

In early April 2018, the warm weather conditions and the optimum soil moisture reserves were favourable for the growth and development of winter crops. However, in the second and third ten-day periods of April and in early May 2018 Ukraine faced the anomalously warm, windy and almost dry weather. By the level of the average air temperature, April and the beginning of May 2018 became the warmest periods for 20 recent years. In many oblasts, there were observed mass dry hot wind weather events, even in western oblasts. In April, there was a record number of days with the critical relative air humidity (less than 30%) vegetation processes. Moisture continued actively vaporizing from the soil.

Heavy accumulation of the effective heat contributed to activating of the growth processes. In southern oblasts, winter crops reached the stage of lower culm nodes formation in nearly two weeks earlier than usual, they started extremely early ear formation, and in the first ten-day period of May winter grains already reached the milky kernel stage.

In April and early May, the high average daily maximum air temperature (to +30...33°C throughout almost the whole territory) had a negative impact on the productivity of crop areas. The temperatures caused the heat stress. Therefore, in several raions the plants stopped spring tillering processes and formed a small number of productive stems. Late crops faced the most significant losses, which in the beginning of spring were in the stage of sprouts formation and just started tillering.

Fall of the air temperature in mid May and rainfalls throughout the country somewhat softened the agro-meteorological conditions for harvest formation in southern oblasts, where previously agrarians already observed soil drought events in April, which slightly reduced its negative impact.

In the period of active vegetation of winter crops (April 1 - May 30, 2018), the average temperature was higher by 3-4°C compared with the standard, and totaled +13...16°C (last year — 8.5...11.5°C).

The average precipitation level for the reporting period formed the following ranges compared with the agro-meteorological standards: the Steppe zone — 40-50% (in 2017 — 100%), the Forest-steppe zone — 60-70% (2017 — 85%), Polesia — 60-70% (2017 — 100%).

According to the meteorological station reports, as of May 30 in the south and south-East of the country winter crops faced drought weather conditions, and in some raions the moisture reserves were already exhausted.

According to visual estimations, winter crops were in good condition throughout 70% of the monitored areas (in 2017 — 85%), and the yield figures of the crops were expected to reach the average level for 5 recent years. The crops were mainly in satisfactory condition throughout nearly 27% of the areas (2017 — 15%), but their yield figures will become slightly lower compared with the standard for 5 recent years. And the crops were in unsatisfactory condition throughout 3% of the areas, so their yield figures will be very low.

Taking into account the actual condition of crops, the current reserves of productive moisture content in the soil, and the agro-meteorological estimations, in the current year the yield figures of winter crops will total: wheat — 3.8 t/ha, rye — 2.7 t/ha, barley — 3.1 t/ha.

Taking into account the areas under crops (State Statistics Service of Ukraine — final report on the planted areas under winter crops for the harvest-2018, and reports of the Ministry of Agrarian Policy), the general harvest of winter grains will total 26.8 mln tonnes, including 23.9 mln tonnes of wheat, 0.4 mln tonnes of rye, and 2.5 mln tonnes of barley. According to the preliminary calculations, in the current year ripening of winter crops in most oblasts will happen in 1.5-3 weeks earlier than the average multi-year terms.

At the end of June 2018, the Ukrainian Hydrometeorological Center will form the updated forecast of winter crops yield, as well as the forecast of yield and harvest volumes of all grains and pulses in Ukraine.

Forecast of winter crops yields in 2018 in Ukraine

The Hydrometeorological Center used the results of winter crops monitoring from the meteorological stations, satellite mapping and crop yield forecasting model, to form the forecast.

According to the Ukrainian Hydrometeorological Center