Preliminary results of the planting campaign in Ukraine

The autumn planting campaign for the harvest-2020 faced rather difficult weather conditions, which caused the following reduction of areas under winter crops. The deficit of the sufficient moisture content in the soil during the planting campaign of winter crops contributed to formation of the smaller areas under the major winter crops, compared with the original plans. In turn, the sufficient provision of all necessary maintenance resources during the planting works and relatively favourable weather conditions before beginning of the winter made the situation much more optimistic. The current article covers the preliminary results of the autumn planting campaign of winter crops.

Weather factor

The weather is one of the main factors affecting the quantitative and qualitative indicators of the production of winter crops. Of course, it played the key role in formation of the structure of the planted areas for the harvest-2020. According to the Ukrainian Hydrometeorological Center, the deficit of precipitations in Ukraine from the second half of August to the end of October, a very warm autumn, the low air humidity and dry weather, led to formation of rather low moisture reserves in the soil, which share was almost similar to the figures in very dry 2015.

In most oblasts, agrarians completed of the planting campaign to almost dry soil. Only due to strong fogs and heavy dew in the morning, many fields managed to form small moisture reserves in the upper layers of the soil.

The situation somewhat changed, when the main part of the planting campaign was already completed. Thus, the sufficient share of heat and precipitation contributed to formation of the soil moisture reserves in the first half of November, and extended the vegetation period of winter crops.

Formation of winter crops areas

It is worth noting that only three winter crops (wheat, barley, and rye) form the significant share of the harvest of grains and pulses in Ukraine. For several recent seasons, the relative indicator usually totaled more than 40%. In 2014, winter grains formed 43% of the general grain harvest, in 2017 — 47%, in 2019 the figures were estimated at 44%. At the same time, there was no significant expansion of the areas, and the growth of yield figures mainly developed the reporting growth. For 7 recent seasons, the yield figures of winter wheat increased by nearly 3% per year, winter barley — up 5%, and winter rye — up 4%. At the same time, winter barley areas decreased by nearly 4%.

According to the recent statistics figures, Ukraine planted winter grains for the harvest-2020 throughout the areas of 6.98 mln ha, down 8% compared with the last year level (7.57 mln ha). In particular, winter wheat planted areas covered 85% of the general areas, or 5.93 mln ha, winter barley — 13% (919 thsd ha), and winter rye — 2% only (123.7 thsd ha).

In the segment of winter wheat, the areas for the next season harvest decreased by 5% compared with the average values for the seven-year period, which became the lowest level since 2014. Also, the areas under winter barley and rye reduced compared with the average annual indicators by 1% and 14%, respectively.

The rates of the planting campaign of winter crops mainly matched the previous season figures, even despite the difficult agro-climatic conditions.

As for the regional distribution of winter grain areas, most oblasts-producers of Ukraine demonstrated the downward trend in crops planted areas for the harvest-2020. In particular, Kyiv oblast reached the maximum reduction in the planted areas under winter wheat — down 39%, compared with the previous season. Also, in Sumy oblast the planted areas decreased by 18%, in Zaporizhia oblast — down 12%, and in Vinnytsia oblast — down 10%. In 2019, the reporting four oblasts covered 22% of the general production of winter wheat in Ukraine. Thus, the general planted areas under winter wheat for the harvest-2020 decreased by 8%, compared with the figures for the harvest-2019.

At the same time, in the current season the area under winter barley decreased by 9%, compared with the last year figures. At the same time, many oblasts demonstrated the significant reduction of the planted areas. In Sumy oblast, the areas decreased by 45% compared with 2018 figures, in Zhytomyr oblast — down 44%, and in Rivne oblast — down 41%. In the oblast-leader by the areas under winter barley — Odessa oblast — the areas decreased by 9%. Not only weather conditions, but also economic factors, contributed to reduction of the areas under the grain: unstable demand on both domestic and foreign markets, as well as the low prices for the grain, formed under the influence of reduced demand and strong hryvnia exchange rates.

At the same time, the planted areas under winter rye demonstrated some upward trend, compared with the last year figures. According to the recent statistics figures, the planted areas totaled 123.7 thsd ha, against 115.1 thsd ha for the harvest-2019. It should be noted that in the key oblasts of rye production, there was recorded the significant increase of its areas. In Rivne oblast, the areas under the grain increased by 61% compared with the last year figures, in Volyn oblast — up 21%, and in Chernihiv oblast — up 8%.

As for winter rapeseed, its areas for the harvest-2020 decreased by almost 200 thsd ha, and totaled 1.1 mln ha, against 1.3 mln ha last year (down 15%).

The further condition of crops will depend on the level of favourable weather conditions for the overwintering period of winter crops.

Thus, the adverse weather conditions that accompanied the planting campaign of winter crops for the harvest-2020, did not allow to achieve the plan of the planted areas. At the same time, the high level of provision of agrarians with the material and technical resources during the planting campaign, and soft entering period of the winter, somewhat compensated the negative impact of the weather factor. The impact of the current critical period — overwintering — will be estimated in February 2020, and it will be possible to make the first forecasts about the harvest volumes in 2020.

Viktoria Rozhko, Julia Ivanitskaya, APK-Inform Agency