Imposition of the quarantine due to the COVID-19 pandemic and the unstable weather conditions in form of the deficit of precipitation, rather warm winter, the soil moisture deficit, dry hotwind weather, and frosts in April, significantly complicated any forecasting of grain crops production in Ukraine in 2020.
APK-Inform analysts took into account the maximum number of factors and made their forecast of the general harvest of grains and pulses, which totaled 68.6 mln tonnes, a decrease of 9% compared with the current season figures (75.1 mln tonnes). At the same time, in terms of the current weather conditions, the average grain yield will reach 4.72 t/ha, down 4% compared with 2019 (4.91 t/ha).
In the new season, wheat production will decrease to 24.5 mln tonnes (down 13% compared with 2019), and barley — to 6.8 mln tonnes (down 23%), due to reduction of the planted areas under the reporting grains by 4% and 16% respectively, as well as decreasing of their yield figures under the impact of the weather factor. The harvest of corn in 2020 will total 35.1 mln tonnes, down 2% compared with the harvest of 2019. But the expansion of the planted areas under corn can somewhat compensate the expected decrease of the grain yield.
Generally, the forecasted grain production in Ukraine exceeds the annual average indices for 5 recent seasons, which fully meets the domestic needs, and does not provide any reasons for imposition of possible restrictions on the foreign supplies. Taking into account the unpredictability of agroclimatic and economic conditions, APK-Inform Agency will more than once revise the forecasts, in accordance with appearing of new risks.
You can become acquainted with more detailed information about the forecasts of grains and oilseeds production in the countries of the Black Sea region, within frames of the online conference organized by APK-Inform Agency, to be held on May 14, 2020.