“Huge inequality” in Crop Prediction




“Huge inequality” is probably the right name of the current planting and upcoming harvesting campaign. Indeed, the agro-climatic conditions in the current season can be characterized by increased localization and regular anomalies. Spring drought, April frosts and uneven rainfall in late April and early May are the key factors for the new crop and for sure add work to analysts.

Traditionally APK-Inform uses a maximum of tools to predict crop yields. During the period of April frosts, our experts interviewed farmers, taking into account regional characteristics. According to the results of this poll, we observe a rather sad picture of sowings’ damage, but do hope for normal development of plants.

As a result, analysts changed a bit their forecasts for a new crop in Ukraine. In particular, the current estimate of grain production is 68.6 million tons. At the same time, for most crops we expect production decrease due to lower yield.

In the oilseed segment, the crop is expected to reach 22.5 -23.0 million tons. At the same time, if the situation is more or less clear for rapeseed, the share of damaged crops is only the question, but in the segments of sunflower and soybean remains uncertainty about the cultivated area.