Russian invasion in Ukraine makes the planting campaign highly doubtful in at least 9 Ukrainian oblasts, where military activity is ongoing.
Even in the case of ceasefire, logistics will be a challenge in some regions and the delivery of seeds and fertilizers will be almost impossible.
APK-Inform estimates planted area under sunflower seed of the harvest 2022 to decline to the lowest in 13 years 4.2-4.4 mln ha in Ukraine (-35% from 2021).
So sizable decline of the area is based on the fact that the majority of military activity is going in the key regions of sunflower seed producing – southern (Mykolaiv, Kherson, Zaporizhzhia oblasts) and eastern (Kharkov, Donetsk, Luhansk oblasts).
Planting campaign in central and western regions is threatened as well, mainly due to the logistics problems for delivery of resources. There is a lack of labor forces, as many people joined the army.
Preliminary, sunflower seed crop can total less than 10 mln tonnes in Ukraine in 2022. Production decline can be partially offset by high carry-over stocks expected in the country, as many processing plants were shutdown.
Planted area under soybean can decrease less significantly, as the main producing regions are located in central and western oblasts. APK-Inform expect soybean planted area to decrease by 11% to 1.2 mln ha in 2022.
The situation with rapeseed is way worse. Farmers have planted 1.4 mln ha with rapeseed, maximum in 12 years. However, about 50% of the area is located in oblasts of military activity, thus, high share of crop can be lost.