Kazakhstan is one of the largest producers and exporters of wheat in the world and in 2022/23 MY the production of the grain is a record for the past 12 seasons and amounts to 16,4 thsd tonnes, with the yield at - 1,28 t/ha.
According to APK-Inform, the current export potential in 2022/23 MY increased by 14% compared to July, and can reach 8 mln tonnes. Despite obstacles, observed since the beginning of the season, in July-December Kazakhstan exported 3.2 mln tonnes of wheat, up 7% year-on-year, reaching the record high for the past 4 seasons. Uzbekistan and Tajikistan remain key markets.
APK-Inform analysts report, that Uzbekistan, taking a leading position as an importer of Kazakh wheat, in 2022/23 MY (July-December) imported 1.6 mln tonnes, up 18% y-o-y; including 401 thsd tonnes in December 2023, up 65% y-o-y. In the FH of the season, Tajikistan reduced wheat imports to 624 thsd tonnes, down 11% y-o-y. At the same time, Afghanistan increased significantly the import of Kazakh wheat in 2022/23 MY — to 427 thsd tonnes (+74 y-o-y), becoming the 3rd largest importer.
Also, the TOP-5 importers of wheat from Kazakhstan include Azerbaijan and Turkmenistan. In particular, Azerbaijan increased import 2.2 times to 170 thsd tonnes, but Turkmenistan declined import to 144 thsd tonnes, down 31% y-o-y, although wheat purchases increased 9.5 times compared to 2020/21 MY.
«It should be noted, that there was positive dynamics in the delivery of Kazakh wheat to premium markets. In particular, in July-December of 2022/23 MY the deliveries of wheat to China increased by 56% to 23.9 thsd tonnes compared to 15.3 thsd tonnes y-o-y. Also, shipments to Latvia — up 12% to 11.1 thsd tonnes, to Poland — up 41% to 3.7 thsd tonnes» - APK-Inform analysts reported.
At the same time, the problems with logistics continue to impact export. In a new season, Kazakh farmers and traders faced delays in wagon deliveries, caused by congestion of the railways and the lack of locomotive traction, which preserves until now. Thus, there is a risk of non-fulfillment of applications for already concluded contracts.
Also, in the current season, competition with Russia for major markets and maintaining of its share is still relevant, which put pressure on prices.
The currency exchange fluctuation is another factor that impacts the prices in the key grain markets.
However, in general in September-December, 2022, Kazakhstan exported to China 508.3 thsd tonnes of grains, oilseeds and by-products, which is 5 times higher y-o-y. Over 80% of the export included barley (133.5 thsd tonnes), what bran (118.2 thsd tonnes), sunflower seeds (84.9 thsd tonnes), and flaxseed (76 thsd tonnes).
Latvia also increased imports 11 times (21.6 thsd tonnes), however, apart from wheat and flaxseed imports (share is 87%) the country started to purchase sunflower meal/cake, rapeseed meal/cake, cereals, peas and sunflower oil.
Poland imported 21.1 thsd tonnes of agriproducts, up 51% y-o-y. 70% of the import include flaxseed (15.2 thsd tonnes), 17% — wheat (3.7 thsd tonnes), 5% — mustard (1.1 thsd tonnes), 2% — safflower, lentils, rapeseed, buckwheat, sunflower seeds, cereals, wheat flour and millet.
Global and regional trends in the grain and oilseeds markets, preliminary results of 2022/23 MY and expectation from 2023/24 MY will be discussed by international and Kazakh experts at the Asia Grain Conference, which will be held in April 24-26, I Almaty, IterContinental Almaty Hotel.
By Ksenia Verbitska, APK-Inform Analyst