Flaxseed market faces grim outlook: depletion of raw materials for processing expected by May 2024 – expert




A unique situation has developed in the global market of flaxseed – the demand for raw materials for processing in the current season far exceeds the level of supply.

"If in previous years we saw a significant surplus of supply over processing, today the numbers have not simply leveled off, but the supply is about 100.000 tonnes lower than the level needed for processing. Only the stocks, which, by the way, are very small, will help out," Evgeny Karabanov, the founder of Severnoye Zerno LLC, said at the international conference Asia Grains&Oils Conference: Results of 2023 in Almaty.

According to his estimations, in Kazakhstan the flaxseed stocks are only about 30 thsd tonnes, in Russia – about 50 thsd tonnes, and in Canada – up to 180 thsd tonnes.

"The market situation is quite challenging. It's unclear why everyone is so calm and relaxed for now – come May, we'll see how everyone rushes when there's no more flaxseed," emphasized the expert.

At the moment, this is already reflected in the market – prices are rising on all bases.

The main consumer of flaxseed is China. If for the entire last season, it imported 1.023 mln tonnes of this oilseed, then already for 4 months of the current season (July-September) – already about 320 thsd tonnes, said E. Karabanov with reference to ITC data. China bought most of the flaxseed from the Russian Federation – 201 thsd tonnes, from Kazakhstan – 94.5 thsd tonnes, and from Canada – 25 thousand tons.

At the same time, the expert noted that the market was restructured and partially replaced flaxseed oil in the industrial sector (primarily, in the production of olive oil) with other types of oil – rapeseed oil and soybean oil, adding additives.