Ukraine: sowing campaign-2009/10

Source

APK-Inform

3336

Traditionally, at the beginning of spring, the issue of volumes and qualitative parameters of the future harvests are one of the most topical questions of the similar studies. And the annual multi-client study "Ukraine: sowing campaign-2010" will assist to you to take the right decision in the sphere, based on the primary data from the direct sources - Ukrainian agricultural producers.

It should be mentioned that during several recent years, APK-Inform Agency provided over 15 large-scale pollings both for leading European companies, specializing in realization of quantitative market analyses (including markets of agricultural products), and for own informational requirements. APK-Inform Agency has rather wide and actualized data base, and the staff of over 30 skilled interviewers. During several years of realization of pollings, the Agency worked out bases of respondents, varying within various panels (segments of the agro industrial complex market), and the system of motivation of respondents (two waves of appeals and encouragements - before and after the interviewing). Besides, the mentioned polling is provided with usage of the special software SurveyAPK (adapted analogue of CATI) of the agency, which assists to automatize the working process and adapt to the international standards.

It should be noted that to date, not only various private consulting and marketing companies in the whole world widely use such strategy, but also state authorities: of the EU countries started rejecting to use methods of agricultural censuses and started using panel pollings as the main instrument of receiving of information for analysis of various branches of the agro industrial complex.

In the spring 2009, we provided the first quantitative and qualitative study "Ukraine: sowing campaign-2009. Forecast of harvests of main agricultural crops in Ukraine in 2009", which was worthily estimated by customers - lage-scale agricultural producers, producers of grains and oilseeds, producers of seeds, mineral fertilizers and plant protectors, trade companies.

Due to the high interest in the present study, in the current season, we continue working at the method. The study "Ukraine: sowing campaign-2009/10" is realized in two stages. On the basis of the first stage of the study "Sowing campaign-2009/10" (Winter sowing campaign), the agency provided forecasts of winter grains and rapeseed sowing areas for the harvest-2010. And the stage also determined volumes of fertilizer and plant protectors application to winter crops sowings, estimated financial sources of agricultural producers in the autumn sowing campaign. We also provided the rate companies - suppliers of seeds, mineral fertilizers, plant protectors. The received data showed the real condition of agricultural producers in the terms of essential influence of the financial and economic crisis at the agrarian sector of the country.

In the current moment, the agency provides work at the second stage of the study, which will include the results of pollings of agricultural producers in six blocks (Sowing areas, Seed material, Fertilizers and plant protectors, Financial resources, Prospects of harvest selling and prime cost, Investments). On the basis of the reporting data, the agency will reflect the corrected data of winter crops condition, provide the forecast of the main grains and oilseeds production volumes, indicate the volumes of fertilizers and plant protectors application to spring crops sowings. Besides, the agency will determine the sources of financing of the spring sowing campaign, directions of selling of the harvest volumes and investments, and also show data of concerning expenditures for 1 ha of sowing areas and the structure of sowings.

According to results of phone pollings of agricultural producers, provided within bounds of the study "Sowing campaign-2009/10", own financial resources of agricultural producers became the main source of financing of the sowing campaign. The tendency also continued within edges of the autumn polling. The number of agricultural producers, which denied from using of borrowed money resources, grew by 20%.

The spring sowing campaign of 2010 will not became the exception. The current data of phone interviewing witness about the keeping of the tendency of realization of the field works, relying upon own resources only. At the same time, it will be remarked that the current operative data witness about the continuing reduction of the share of usage of bank credits. It also should be mentioned that the Ministry of Agrarian Policy estimates the present requirement in financial resources for realization of the complex of spring field works in the current season at the level of 24 bln UAH. However, according to estimations of various state bodies, to date, agrarians are provided with the required volumes of financial resources at the level of 50%.

Despite rather difficult financial and economic situation in the country, large-scale and medium agricultural companies continue dealing with Initial public offering operations, and confirm own high interest in the agrarian sector in such way. At the same time, despite rather restricted possibilities for the majority of agrarians to realize large-scale investment projects in the current economic conditions, the present data of pollings wintriness that nearly 9% of agricultural producers plan to invest financial resources in agricultural technical equipment, 7% - in grain storing capacities, and 5% - in transport facilities (freight transport and etc.).

We hope that the presented study will assist in planning of your business activity on the agrarian market in the nearest future.

The study "Ukraine: sowing campaign-2010. Forecast of harvests of main agricultural crops in Ukraine in 2010" represents the annual analytical product, based on the data of the official statistics, forecasts of the agency and quantitative polling of sampling of middle and large-scale producers of grains and oilseeds in Ukraine with the land bank of over 300 hа.

Due to the fact that the general number of agricultural enterprises in Ukraine totals over 47 thsd units, we used the method of sampling observation during realization of the study, which allows receiving the complex information with considerably lower level of time and assets consumption.

The formation of representative sampling of respondents is also one of the main stages during realization of pollings. During the formation of such sampling, we kept the general structure of agricultural enterprises of the country in diminished variant (at regions of the country, at sizes of agricultural areas), and the sampling completely responds to all tendencies of the whole agro industrial complex of Ukraine.

The level of confidence probability (or sampling accuracy) means the level of confidence that the value of the reporting element will hit to the given range of the confidence interval. Our study has the sampling accuracy at the level of 95%.

Confidence interval (within delta) means the spread of the results, got with the help of sampling observation, from the true data of the general collection. Confidence interval totals 5%.

Anna Burka,

analyst of APK-Inform Agency

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