Despite geopolitical changes and the forced revision of the main trade routes, Ukraine remains one of the key suppliers of oil and fat products to foreign markets and, above all, to the European market, while there is a noticeable shift in supplies towards the export of oilseeds raw materials.
In particular, Ukraine shipped a total of 5.4 mln tonnes of oilseeds to the EU in July-January 2022/23, of which rapeseed – almost 55%, sunflower seeds – 28%, and soybeans – 17%. The share of niche oilseeds significantly decreased and accounted for less than 1%, not only due to the main oilseeds export increase but also due to a reduction in their production in 2022, since a significant share of the area was concentrated in the south of Ukraine. Taking into account the high liquidity of oilseed crops, it is expected that in 2023 the planting area may increase significantly.
According to the updated forecast of the APK-Inform analysts, in 2023 the planting area under oilseeds in Ukraine may be increased to 8.28 mln ha, up 3% year-on-year. At the same time, the share of the harvesting area of oilseed may increase to 98-99% against 95% in 2022.
In particular, in 2023 sunflower seeds production can increase to 12.3 mln tonnes (+12 y-o-y), and soybeans – to 4.2 mln tonnes (+10%) with area at 1.6-1.7 mln ha (+7%). Rapeseed production can decline to around 3.2 mln tonnes (-7%), still one of the three largest.
