The Russian war in Ukraine will take large volumes of Black Sea wheat and corn off the market in both current and next seasons, Alexandre Bobylov Senior Pricing Specialist at S&P Global Commodity Insights speaking at Grain&Maritime Days in Istanbul 2022 conference on May 25.
A. Bobylov said that due to the war, loss in exports potential of Ukrainian wheat was estimated at 5 mln tonnes in 2021/22 MY and at 7 mln tonnes in 2022/23 MY. He does not exclude that the decrease can be even worse. As a result, wheat stocks will reach 5.6 mln tonnes in 2021/22 MY and 6 mln tonnes in 2022/23 MY.
Moreover, the export potential of Russian wheat will suffer as well. A. Bobylov estimates the loss in exports potential at 2 mln tonnes in 2021/22 MY and at 6 mln tonnes in 2022/23 MY. This will lead to the accumulation of wheat stocks at 12 mln tonnes this season and 22 mln tonnes next season.
In corn segment, the loss in export potential of Ukrainian grain will be significant. The country cannot ship its corn as usually because of blocked ports. Thus, the global market will miss 10.5 mln tonnes of Ukrainian corn in 2021/22 MY and 21 mln tonnes in 2022/23 MY. As a result, Ukraine will have 6.8 mln tonnes of corn in stocks this season and 8 mln tonnes next season.