Grain crop will decline sharply in Russia in 2021, declared the Head of the analytical center at Rusagrotrans JSC, Igor Pavensky on December 1.
“Wheat production and generally grain crop will declined significantly next year. Surely, we will not get as low as 75 mln tonnes of wheat and 120 mln tonnes of grain. However, we will not be close to 84 mln tonnes and 131mln tonnes we expect this year”, - the expert supposes.
I.Pavensky said that the lower production of winter crops would be the main reason of overall decline of grain output. The areas with winter crops in bad condition and areas where crops have not sprouted at all are “huge”.
“Such losses are unlikely to be offset by wider planted area under winter grains. We estimate the area under winter grains at the record 19.5 mln ha in 2020, up 0.8-1 mln ha compared to 2019”, - he said.
He reminded that Roshydromet estimated the area under winter crops in bad condition at 4.28 mln ha (22% out of the total planted area), 2.42 mln ha have not got the sprouts at all as of December 1.
“It is the worst condition of winter crops over the last 20 years, and further downward revision is possible. The share of crops in good condition is record low and slightly exceeds 50%, while usually it is 65-70%. This figure is close to 2015 (55%)”, - the expert added.
Besides, the cold snap coming to the European part of Russia may worsen the situation, while precipitation is not expected. It may hurt crops, particularly, in Volga region where very low temperatures are expected.
At the same time, the expert do not exclude that some areas will got the sprouts in the spring.
“Anyway, the yield of winter crops will decrease in southern regions and partially in central black-earth and Volga regions”, - I.Pavensky summarized.
