USDA forecasts that Ukraine and Russia will cover 15% of the world wheat production, 18% of world barley production and 4% of global corn crop. The countries are among TOP-10 leading global exporters of the main grain crops.
Under the quite stable grain planted areas in Ukraine and Russia, the production volumes are mainly depend on the yields of grain. Russia increased grain production in 2020, while Ukraine reduced the output due to the weather conditions. In 2021, the situation will change.
APK-Inform forecasts that Ukraine will harvest 73.8 mln tonnes of grain crops in 2021, up 13% from 2020 (64.9 mln tonnes). Wheat production will amount to 27.3 mln tonnes (+10%), barley - 7.9 mln tonnes (+3%), corn - 36.2 mln tonnes (+19%).
Russia will cut the production of grains by 6% to 125.7 mln tonnes in 2021, including 79.3 mln tonnes of wheat (-8%), 20 mln tonnes of barley (-5%) and 13.9 mln tonnes of corn.
The common grain production in Ukraine and Russian will amount to 199.4 mln tonnes in 2021, up by 975.6 thsd tonnes compared to 2020. Therefore, the decline of grain production in Russia will be offset by better performance in Ukraine.