Darren Cooper, Senior Economist at the International Grains Council spoke on aspects of global grains and oilseeds markets in 2021/22 MY at the international conference Asia Grains&Oils Conference in Qazaqstan organized by APK-Inform on November 17-18.
The expert focused on the upward price trend observing on the global grain market. D. Cooper pointed that the key support comes from the worries about world market availabilities, with wheat stocks at major exporters seen at a 9 year low.
“We expect the wheat stocks to decline by 10% y/y to 9 year low of 54 mln tonnes in 2021/22 MY. It is pushing the prices up on the global market, despite a much bigger outturn of grain”, – the expert explained. He added that the equity, energy and freight markets gave an extra support as well. Besides, a possible strengthening of grain export restrictions in Russia can be bullish of the prices too.
In turn, the prices of soybean are declining on the global market pressured by the expected record crop. The IGC forecasts the production of soybean at 379.5 mln tonnes in 2021/22 MY, up 3.7% y/y. A modest recovery of soybean inventories is expected as well, but they will be below past highs.
“We see the reduction of soybean prices in the recent months. However, much depends on South American harvests and Chinese demand”, – he said.